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Tesla’s first-quarter results, due on Wednesday, have brought fresh attention to market talk about a possible tie-up with SpaceX. Analysts at Jefferies said weak progress in robotaxis and rising funding pressure could keep this speculation alive. The discussion has gained traction as Tesla faces closer scrutiny over execution and spending.
Tesla’s first-quarter report is set to draw attention to revenue, margins, and cash flow. Jefferies forecast revenue of $21.2 billion, up 10% from a year earlier but lower than the previous quarter. The bank also expects operating margin to fall below 3% and cash burn to reach about $1.9 billion.
Bloomberg consensus, cited in a separate earnings preview, points to revenue of $22.08 billion, down 9% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected at $0.35, while adjusted EBITDA is seen at $3.217 billion. The difference between forecasts shows how much uncertainty still surrounds Tesla’s near-term business.
Robotaxi plans remain central to the earnings story. Jefferies said Tesla’s target to launch robotaxi service across 25% to 50% of potential US markets by year-end may be difficult to reach. The bank pointed to permit issues and continued questions around Tesla’s lidar-free Full Self-Driving system.
Tesla recently expanded its robotaxi service to parts of Dallas and Houston. Before that, the company had service in Austin and ride-hailing operations in the San Francisco Bay Area. Tesla also said the Dallas and Houston rollout was “unsupervised,” meaning no safety driver was present, though it did not give details on fleet size.
Tesla’s capital spending plans have added to investor focus ahead of the results. The company is projecting more than $20 billion in capex this year, up from $8.5 billion last year. This spending covers batteries, Cybercab production, Optimus robots, AI computing, and chip development.
Jefferies expects Tesla’s free cash flow to stay under pressure as spending rises. The bank projects a negative free cash flow of about $5.5 billion in 2026, with annual capex reaching about $19 billion to $20 billion. Jefferies said it does not expect Tesla to generate robotaxi operating revenue until 2027.
Chipmaking has become another key part of the spending story. Elon Musk said Tesla was “taping out” its AI5 chip, which is meant for future vehicles, large training systems, and Optimus. Tesla plans to produce those chips at a proposed Austin facility known as Terafab.
Reports on the project have added to the debate about cost and scale. Some forecasts describe the factory as a major long-term buildout, while other analyst estimates place the possible cost far higher. Bloomberg also reported that manufacturing may begin in 2029 before scaling later, which points to a long timeline.
Tesla and SpaceX have deepened operational ties in 2026, which has helped keep merger speculation active. Reports said the two companies are working together on the Terafab project, described as a facility for chips tied to AI, robotics, and space-related data centers. SpaceX has also reportedly bought more than 1,200 Cybertrucks.
Some reports said those vehicle purchases supported Tesla’s sales figures during a period of softer consumer demand. Analysts have also pointed to a direct equity relationship between the two companies after an investment conversion. These links have added more weight to the wider discussion around how closely the businesses may work together.
Wedbush analysts have projected a possible 2027 merger tied to a future SpaceX IPO. Even so, the main driver of the current debate remains Tesla’s own position as it pushes deeper into robotaxis, AI, and chip manufacturing. For now, the tie-up story is being driven by analyst views, spending plans, and growing overlap between Musk’s companies rather than any confirmed corporate move.
Also Read: Tesla Stock Rises as UBS Upgrades Shares to Hold Ahead of Earnings Report
