.png){kind=logo}
Wolfe Research projects that Tesla’s robotaxi business could scale into a major revenue driver over the next decade. The firm’s top-down model estimates robotaxi revenue could reach $250 billion by 2035 under specific adoption and pricing assumptions.
At the time of writing, Tesla’s stock traded near $422, as investors weighed that long-range outlook against near-term execution risks. The same session also brought fresh focus to Elon Musk’s wider corporate network after reports of a combination between SpaceX and xAI.
Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner called 2026 a “catalyst-rich year” tied to robotaxi expansion, Optimus progress, and wider rollout of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). He said the long-term return on investment (ROI) could look attractive if execution holds.
The firm’s robotaxi model assumes 30% autonomous vehicle penetration and 50% market share for Tesla. It also assumes a pricing of $1 per mile. Under those inputs, Wolfe estimates robotaxi revenue could reach $250 billion by 2035.
Wolfe also mapped that revenue path into valuation math. The note said the model could support roughly $2.75 trillion in equity value, or about $900 billion when discounted back. The discounted figure equated to more than $250 per share, according to the analyst.
Rosner stayed cautious on near-term fundamentals and modeled earnings below consensus for 2026 and 2027. He pointed to margin pressure from input costs, pricing dynamics, and changes to Tesla’s FSD monetization approach.
He also expects Tesla’s artificial intelligence efforts to weigh on earnings in 2026. This includes costs tied to robotaxi rollout and Optimus development. As a result, he estimated robotaxi-related gross losses of about $500 million next year.
Wolfe’s scenario assumes Tesla grows its robotaxi fleet to roughly 7,200 vehicles from about 250 at the end of 2025. The analyst also expects Tesla to enter seven additional markets in the first half of 2026. Wolfe forecasts gross breakeven within 2027 and potential robotaxi revenue near $30 billion by 2030.
Meanwhile, investor attention returned to Musk’s broader ecosystem after reports that SpaceX acquired xAI. Elon Musk announced the acquisition on February 3, and earlier reporting described investor discussions around a combination.
Reuters reported estimates that valued SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at about $250 billion, while other analysts cited a combined value of around $1.25 trillion.
Tesla has also disclosed financial exposure to xAI. A report tied to Tesla’s recent results said Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI. This disclosure has fueled debate about whether shared infrastructure or talent could support Tesla’s autonomy and robotics roadmap.
Looking ahead, investors will likely track robotaxi market launches, expansion of unsupervised FSD access, and early Optimus production targets. Wolfe’s note suggests 2026 may bring frequent milestones, even if near-term costs stay elevated.
Also Read: SpaceX Internal Share Sale Values Company at $800 Billion Ahead of IPO Plans
