.png){kind=logo}
Bitcoin has broken below its 200-week trend support for the first time in over two years, signaling weakening long-term momentum.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8–$4.5 billion in outflows so far, adding pressure to price action.
Macro uncertainty, including tariff concerns and stock market volatility, is influencing broader cryptocurrency sentiment.
Bitcoin has just recorded a major shift on its weekly chart. BTC price closed below the 200-week exponential moving average for the first time in two years.
Each time Bitcoin price moved down toward it, buyers stepped in and pushed the market higher. Now that this level has been broken, it may turn into resistance instead of support.
A weekly trend break like this often changes market mood. Bitcoin traders who once saw steady strength now see uncertainty. When a long-term support level fails, it usually signals that momentum is weakening. That does not guarantee a crash, but it does show that the previous upward rhythm has paused.
Bitcoin price is trading in the low-to-mid $60,000 range at press time. This is a sharp contrast to the October peak reached last year. From that high, the market has fallen about 50%. Since the start of 2026, BTC is down 24%.
Such a decline has caught attention across financial markets. A drop of this size after a strong rally often sparks debate over whether it's just a correction or the start of a longer downturn.
Also Read - How Bitcoin Volatility Impacts Investors and the Overall Crypto Market
Another important factor behind this weakness is the inflows and outflows of money into and out of spot BTC exchange-traded funds. These Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion. This marks one of the longest withdrawal streaks since these funds began trading.
When large investors pull money from ETFs, it reduces buying pressure in the market. Over the past two years, fund inflows helped support strong price growth.
Now, the opposite flow is causing additional strain. Even so, total cumulative inflows since launch remain above $50 billion, showing that long-term interest has not disappeared.
Bitcoin does not move alone. Global economic conditions are also shaping the current trend. Recent tariff announcements and geopolitical tensions have created a more cautious mood in financial markets. There are also growing discussions about structural economic changes driven by artificial intelligence.
When investors feel uncertain, they often reduce exposure to risk assets. Cryptocurrencies usually fall into that category. This wider “risk-off” environment has weighed on Bitcoin along with stocks and other growth-focused investments.
Technical analysts are closely monitoring certain price zones. Immediate resistance now sits near the former 200-week moving average, which is in the high-$60,000 area. If prices attempt to recover, that region could block upward movement.
On the downside, support is forming around the low $60,000 zone. The psychological level of $60,000 is especially important. If that area fails to hold, chart patterns suggest a possible move toward the $45,000 to $50,000 range. That target comes from a bear-flag breakdown measured on longer-term charts.
On-chain data also shows changing demand patterns. The US demand premium has turned negative for a record stretch, which suggests weaker buying interest from domestic investors compared with global markets.
The market now stands at a crossroads. One possible outcome is stabilization. If ETF outflows slow down and macroeconomic fears ease, Bitcoin could move sideways between roughly $60,000 and $72,000. This would allow the market to rebuild confidence without extreme volatility.
Another scenario involves deeper correction. Continued withdrawals from institutional funds, combined with ongoing global uncertainty, could push the price toward the mid-$40,000 range. That would represent a full technical follow-through after the weekly trend break.
There is also a recovery path. For that to happen, price would need to reclaim the 200-week moving average and close above it every week. A return of strong ETF inflows would also help rebuild momentum. In past cycles, Bitcoin has shown the ability to recover after major technical setbacks, but such recoveries often take time.
Also Read - Bitcoin Crash vs Crypto Market Crash: What’s the Difference
The first weekly trend break in over two years marks a clear change in structure. The strong upward rhythm that defined much of 2024 and 2025 is no longer intact. Market direction now depends on liquidity flows, economic stability, and investor confidence.
Bitcoin remains one of the most-watched assets in the world. Whether this moment becomes a temporary shakeout or the start of a longer reset will depend on how BTC price reacts around key support and resistance levels in the coming weeks. For now, caution and close observation define the market landscape.
Why is the 200-week moving average important for Bitcoin?
The 200-week moving average is a long-term trend indicator that has historically acted as strong support during bull markets and major corrections.
How much has Bitcoin fallen recently?
Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $60,000 range, down about 50% from its October peak and roughly 24% year-to-date in 2026.
What role are ETFs playing in the decline?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion this year, reducing institutional buying pressure.
Could Bitcoin fall further?
If key support near $60,000 fails, technical patterns suggest a possible move toward the $45,000–$50,000 range.
What could trigger a recovery?
A slowdown in ETF outflows, improved macro stability, and a weekly close back above the 200-week average could help restore upward momentum.
Join our WhatsApp Channel to get the latest news, exclusives and videos on WhatsApp
_____________
Disclaimer: Analytics Insight does not provide financial advice or guidance on cryptocurrencies and stocks. Also note that the cryptocurrencies mentioned/listed on the website could potentially be risky, i.e. designed to induce you to invest financial resources that may be lost forever and not be recoverable once investments are made. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You are responsible for conducting your own research (DYOR) before making any investments. Read more about the financial risks involved here.
