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Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced fluctuations during the ongoing US government shutdown; however, the anticipated price surge seen in 2019 may not repeat this time. As of November 2025, Bitcoin's price dropped slightly from $120,000 to about $105,000. Analysts remain divided on whether this signals an opportunity for a post-shutdown rally.
The current government shutdown, which has become the longest in US history, continues to impact government agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), leading to delays in crucial decisions, including those on crypto-related filings and regulations. Unlike the 2019 shutdown, Bitcoin has struggled to gain significant momentum, leaving market participants uncertain.
The government shutdown disrupts vital federal functions, including the approval of cryptocurrency listings and ETF filings, which is affecting the market’s growth. In 2019, Bitcoin experienced a significant price increase following the shutdown's end. From a low of $3,500 during the shutdown, Bitcoin skyrocketed to nearly $13,000 within five months.
However, the situation today presents more challenges. Delays in government processes, compounded by broader economic issues such as rising US dollar strength and increasing Treasury yields, have dampened market optimism. Bitcoin’s price fell by over 15% from its peak at the beginning of the shutdown, showing weaker price movement compared to previous cycles.
Despite these challenges, analysts like Ben Lilly remain optimistic about potential catalysts, including a possible Federal Reserve rate cut and an end to quantitative tightening in December. However, others are less confident, citing a lack of momentum in the cryptocurrency market and continued headwinds.
The SEC’s operational limitations during the shutdown also mean that regulatory clarity remains uncertain, making the market hesitant to respond to any post-shutdown relief.
Bitcoin’s price behavior in November shows a mix of cautious optimism and lingering bearish sentiment. The digital asset has managed to hover around $105,000, but traders are eyeing key resistance levels, including $107,000 and $110,000. While recent market action suggests some upward movement, with lower timeframes indicating bullish momentum, the broader trend remains under pressure.
Key market indicators show that Bitcoin may be on the verge of either a short-term recovery or a deeper pullback. Traders are focusing on the $103,000 to $104,000 support zone as a critical point to watch. A failure to hold above these levels could lead to further downside, possibly revisiting $99,000 or lower.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin can break through resistance levels with strong volume, it may set the stage for a rally towards $110,000 or higher. Overall, Bitcoin’s outlook remains cautious as investors navigate the uncertainties brought about by the ongoing shutdown and broader economic conditions.
Also Read: US Government Shutdown Ends, Crypto Eyes $300B Liquidity Boost
