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At the time of writing, Bitcoin has dropped from its peak of $126,000 to $107,300 between October 6 and October 18, experiencing a 15% decline amid high volatility. The $110,000 resistance level has prevented brief drops this week; however, intense selling occurred around October 16 and October 17, pushing the BTC price below $105,000 before a slight rebound.
This pattern indicates bearish momentum and weakening buyer support, suggesting that Bitcoin may remain under pressure unless it recovers the $110K - $ 112K range zone.
Despite the sharp decline, Bitcoin remains resilient, with more than 90% of BTC supply still in profit, according to Glassnode. Unlike previous panic episodes, such as FTX or Terra Luna, this decline appears to be a leverage-driven correction that reduces excess positions. At the same time, confidence among long-term investors remains intact.
Additionally, the sell-off was intensified when Bitcoin's taker sell volume surged above $4 billion, indicating high activity in the market. This move coincided with BTC failing to hold around the short-term holder (STH) realized price at $112,370, a price that now forms a key resistance. Historically, this price is the average cost of the recent buyers, i.e., a continued rejection below this price may hasten the short-term losses to the level of $100,000.
This level, as noted by market analysts, typically dictates whether traders will hold their positions or exit. Constant rejection near the realized price has, in previous cycles, been accompanied by temporary capitulation, followed by stabilization.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin dropped to 34, its lowest point since April, mirroring the conditions preceding the recovery trend in the first half of 2025. The decline of the RSI suggests that the market may be nearing a potential bottom, similar to April, when Bitcoin was consolidating before its subsequent recovery.
A crucial technical indicator to monitor is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which BTC has maintained for almost six months. Analysts noted that the current trend of BTC is similar to the March-April consolidation, where the prices were volatile, only to start a gradual recovery. In the event of a repeat of history, Bitcoin will likely enter a period of consolidation, which may take a few weeks before it recovers.
Other market participants think that this trend is reflective of previous cycles when BTC established itself around the three-day 100 EMA. Traders are looking at a gradual build-up in this stage, after which renewed momentum is expected when the selling pressure subsides.
Also Read: Bitcoin News Today: BTC Steadies Near $108K as G20 and Zeta Drive Market Focus
