XRP News Today: XRP ETF Approval Odds at 84%: Will it Reach $4?

Overview

• XRP has surged to $3.23, up 40% since the beginning of the year, and is aiming for $4 by December.

• The SEC’s potential approval of XRP ETFs by October could trigger significant institutional investments, fueling further growth.

• XRP still faces hurdles, including limited adoption among financial institutions and stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Ripple (XRP) has experienced significant growth in 2025, outperforming many other major cryptocurrencies. At the press time, XRP is trading at $3.23, marking a 40% increase since the start of the year. 

The question now is whether XRP can reach $4 by December 2025. Although this target is achievable, several factors will play a role in determining if it becomes a reality.

XRP’s Strong Year and Path to $4

XRP has been one of the standout performers in 2025, surpassing the $3 threshold multiple times, a price it hadn’t seen since January 2018. To reach $4, XRP needs to rise more than 20% from its current value. While this may seem like a modest target, multiple developments could fuel its growth toward this milestone by year-end.

The End of the SEC Lawsuit: A Major Milestone for Ripple

Ripple and the SEC officially ended their four-year legal battle on August 7, 2025, with a mutual dismissal. Ripple will pay a $125 million fine, while the 2023 ruling stands: Ripple’s institutional XRP sales were deemed securities violations, but its programmatic sales were not. 

Following the resolution, XRP surged past $3.30. The settlement signals a shift toward compliance and growth for Ripple, as the company focuses on expansion, including a $200 million acquisition of Rail, a Canadian stablecoin platform. This marks a pivotal moment in the crypto sector’s regulatory clarity.

XRP ETFs: The Potential Growth Catalyst

The approval of XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) could be the key factor pushing XRP toward $4. After the SEC approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Ripple is now seeking approval for an XRP ETF. Polymarket puts the odds of XRP ETF approval this year at 84%.

Several firms, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares, have submitted ETF applications, and the SEC is expected to make its decision between October 18 and October 25, 2025.

Approval of an XRP ETF could open the door for institutional investors to gain exposure to XRP in a regulated manner. This would likely lead to an influx of capital, similar to the inflows seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. 

Bitcoin ETFs, for example, have attracted $54 billion, while Ethereum ETFs have seen $10 billion in investments.

However, XRP price may not skyrocket immediately even if the ETF is approved. The market reacted slowly to the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, and while an XRP ETF approval would likely provide a growth catalyst, it could take time for significant inflows to materialize. 

Also Read: XRP Price Prediction: Is $5 Potential Target in 2025?

XRP’s Adoption: Limited Use Case Among Financial Institutions

Another challenge XRP faces in reaching $4 is its relatively limited adoption in the financial sector. Although Ripple has made strides in facilitating cross-border payments through RippleNet, many financial institutions use Ripple’s payment network without utilizing XRP. This limits the token’s value proposition, as its adoption is crucial for its long-term XRP price growth.

XRP’s potential is tied to greater use of the token in real-world applications. Ripple needs to secure broader adoption of XRP to solidify its position as a mainstream cryptocurrency. 

If Ripple can successfully integrate XRP into more payment services, its value may increase, but until that happens, XRP may struggle to gain the widespread use required to sustain significant growth.

Market Sentiment and External Factors

XRP’s price is also affected by broader market sentiment. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, and external factors such as regulatory developments, macroeconomic changes, and shifts in investor sentiment can quickly change the direction of the market. 

Moreover, XRP faces stiff competition from other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. These cryptocurrencies have seen strong investor interest and innovation, which could divert attention away from XRP. While XRP has shown impressive growth, other coins are starting to capture a larger share of the spotlight.

Will XRP Reach $4 by December?

While XRP has had a strong year, reaching $4 by December is not a certainty. The approval of an XRP ETF and the resolution of the SEC lawsuit provide solid growth potential, but XRP faces challenges in adoption and competition. 

For investors optimistic about Ripple’s future and the role of XRP in cross-border payments, XRP remains an attractive investment, though it’s essential to recognize the volatility and risks involved. 

As it stands, $4 may be a stretch for XRP this year, but with the right catalysts, it could move closer to that mark. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility and consider XRP as part of a diversified portfolio for long-term growth.

Also Read: XRP Gains Strength as it Separates from Bitcoin and Ethereum

Conclusion

XRP’s growth in 2025 has been impressive, but whether it will reach $4 by the end of the year depends on multiple factors, including the approval of an XRP ETF, wider adoption of XRP in payments, and broader market trends. 

While XRP remains a promising investment, investors should be cautious, as cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and unpredictable.

FAQs

1. What is XRP's price target for December 2025?

XRP is aiming for $4 by December, but several factors, like ETF approval and adoption, must align for this to happen.

2. How has XRP performed this year?

XRP has gained 40% in 2025, surpassing $3 multiple times, which marks significant growth since January 2018.

3. What impact will ETF approval have on XRP?

ETF approval could drive institutional capital into XRP, pushing its price higher, though the exact impact may take time.

4. Why is XRP’s adoption a concern?

While Ripple’s network is widely used, many institutions don’t use XRP directly, limiting its potential growth and use in financial applications.

5. Can XRP reach $4 this year?

Achieving $4 by December is possible, but market sentiment, regulatory developments, and competition will heavily influence its journey.