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XRP’s rally after Ripple’s legal win may fade as market excitement cools.
ETF hopes for XRP remain uncertain despite growing speculation.
Competition in the cryptocurrency market could limit XRP’s long-term growth.
XRP gained strong attention in August 2025 after the long legal fight between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially ended. The case had been going on since 2020, and its closure brought a wave of optimism to the market. Prices jumped above the $3 mark as traders reacted to the news.
However, while the lawsuit is no longer a concern, several other risks remain. Market movements, supply factors, and Ripple’s shifting focus mean that caution is still important for anyone looking at XRP in the coming months.
The end of the SEC case triggered a strong rally, but history shows that sudden price jumps after major news can quickly fade. In the days after the settlement, profit-taking began, and XRP’s price eased back from its highs. This kind of movement is common in the cryptocurrency market, where early traders lock in gains while new buyers enter at higher prices.
The thin liquidity in altcoins compared to bigger cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can make such drops sharper and faster. When the excitement around a major event fades, prices often return closer to levels supported by actual usage and demand.
One of the biggest boosts to XRP price prediction after the legal win has been the possibility of a US-approved spot ETF for XRP. While smaller firms may file applications, the largest ETF issuers have made it clear they have no immediate plans to launch such a product.
Large financial companies want to see deeper liquidity and sustained demand from institutional investors before they commit to new offerings. Even if an ETF is eventually approved, there is no guarantee it will bring massive inflows right away. Building expectations purely on the hope of quick ETF approval and large investor interest could lead to disappointment if the timeline drags out.
Despite XRP’s strong market value, real-world usage on the XRP Ledger is still far behind many other blockchain networks. The total value locked in its decentralized finance projects remains in the tens of millions of dollars, a small figure compared to leading networks. Trading activity on its decentralized exchange is also low.
Ripple’s launch of an EVM-compatible sidechain was meant to attract developers and projects from other chains, but early results have shown slow growth in both volume and adoption. If these numbers do not improve, XRP’s high price may be supported more by speculation than by real demand for its technology.
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Ripple holds a large amount of XRP in escrow, releasing up to one billion tokens each month according to a set schedule. While most of these tokens are often put back into escrow, the regular unlocks still attract attention from traders and can create uncertainty in the market.
Even when nothing about the process changes, discussions around these releases can spark concerns about oversupply and price drops. This supply mechanism is a permanent part of XRP’s structure, meaning it will continue to influence short-term price movements.
Ripple is expanding its business beyond XRP by focusing on stablecoin products and payment services. The company recently announced a major acquisition in the stablecoin payments space and has launched its own US dollar-backed stablecoin.
While these moves may strengthen Ripple’s position in the payments industry, they raise a question for XRP holders: will future growth in Ripple’s business directly increase the demand for XRP, or will it benefit the company’s stablecoin products instead? If enterprise clients prefer stablecoins for settlements, XRP might see less usage in Ripple’s main business lines.
The legal win against the SEC provides a clearer path for XRP in the United States, but it does not remove all regulatory risks. US lawmakers are still working on new rules for cryptocurrencies, including stablecoin legislation and market oversight.
Regulation changes can affect how exchanges list XRP, how custody is handled, and what compliance measures are required. While clear rules may benefit the market over time, the transition period can cause uncertainty and affect prices. Assuming that the regulatory environment is now fully safe would be a mistake.
When prices rise quickly after big news, both institutional and retail traders tend to pile into the same trade. If the market loses momentum, this crowding can lead to sudden sell-offs as everyone tries to exit at the same time.
XRP’s liquidity, while better than some smaller tokens, is still limited compared to the largest cryptocurrencies. This means that large orders can have a bigger impact on price, especially during periods of heavy selling.
XRP was originally promoted as a faster and cheaper solution for cross-border transactions. That market is now much more competitive. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate in crypto-based payments, while banks and payment companies are developing their own tokenized currencies.
Ripple’s push into stablecoins is a recognition of this reality, but it also means XRP is no longer the only option for fast payments. Unless XRP can offer clear advantages in cost, speed, and liquidity, it may lose ground to these alternatives.
The coming months will reveal whether XRP can match its price momentum with real growth in usage. Sustained increases in transaction volume, decentralized finance activity, and developer adoption would strengthen its position.
The progress of Ripple’s stablecoin business and any concrete steps toward an ETF will also play a big role in shaping sentiment. On the other hand, slow adoption of new technologies, delays in ETF approval, or market shocks could push prices lower.
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The end of the SEC case is a major milestone for XRP, but it is not the end of risk. The token is entering a period where hype needs to be backed by actual growth and adoption. Market excitement, ETF speculation, and company expansion into stablecoins are all factors to watch closely.
Supply unlocks, competition, and evolving regulations remain real challenges. Careful observation of both price action and network activity will be essential in deciding whether XRP’s current rally can hold or whether it will face another correction in the months ahead.
