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Polymarket traders pushed bets on a $120 WTI price this month higher after a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle went down over Iran on Friday. The implied odds rose to 77% from 36% two days earlier. Traders tied the repricing to fears that Operation Epic Fury, the five-week U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, could tighten supply through the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.
The move extended a broader bullish turn in oil bets. A Polymarket poll with more than $4 million in assets showed 69% odds of WTI reaching $120 this month. The same market placed the chance of $130 at 41%.
At the same time, traders expect the war to last longer than Donald Trump projected. In a Wednesday speech, Trump said he expected the war to end within two weeks. However, geopolitical experts see a longer conflict because Iran is not rushing toward a settlement.
Could oil keep climbing if the conflict outlasts Washington’s timeline? Polymarket data showed the odds of a ceasefire this month had fallen to 22%. Iranian officials believe a premature truce could invite another attack within months, a cycle Israel calls mowing the lawn.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the market’s supply fears. Iran wants a concrete end to the war and plans to use the closure as leverage. As a result, traders keep pricing in the risk of a longer disruption.
This stance has added to pressure across oil markets. The closure threatens a key route for crude exports. In turn, traders see fewer signs of a quick return to normal flows.
The same conflict outlook has fed concern over wider regional instability. Traders now focus not only on current disruptions but also on the chance of more attacks on energy routes. That shift has kept the tone in oil markets firm.
Meanwhile, risks are spreading beyond Hormuz. The text says Red Sea oil traffic could also face disruption in the coming months. It links that threat to Houthi attacks on Israel and warnings of further escalation.
Any sustained cut could affect the 7 million barrels a day that Saudi Arabia exports. The text also says Iran may attack more Middle East oil fields if US attacks intensify in the region. That possibility adds another layer of supply risk.
Elsewhere, demand has shifted toward US crude as Middle East supply tightens. Asian buyers, including Japan and South Korea, are seeking barrels they usually source from the region. Buyers in Europe and Latin America are also entering the market, helping lift the WTI premium.
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Polymarket traders raised bets on higher oil prices as the Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz disruption, and Red Sea risks kept supply concerns elevated. Rising demand for US crude also lifted the WTI premium. The key takeaway is that geopolitical tension remains the main driver of near-term oil price expectations.
