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HSBC Global Investment Research estimates that OpenAI may need about $207 billion in additional funding by 2030 to sustain its growth plans. The bank links this projected shortfall to very large cloud and data-center commitments that exceed expected cash generation, even under strong revenue assumptions.
The report highlights OpenAI’s long-term compute deals with major technology partners. The company has signed multiyear agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon Web Services. HSBC expects OpenAI’s cloud and AI infrastructure spending to reach about $792 billion between late 2025 and 2030, and roughly $1.4 trillion by 2033.
HSBC’s technology and semiconductor team forecasts rapid revenue growth for OpenAI through the end of the decade. The bank models annual revenue of around $213 billion by 2030, assuming roughly three billion regular users worldwide. The projection includes higher subscription uptake, stronger API demand and additional digital advertising income.
Despite that outlook, the analysts expect OpenAI to generate negative cumulative free cash flow through 2030. The team calculates a $207 billion gap after factoring in data-center leases, chip purchases and cloud spending attached to existing contracts. OpenAI would need to close that gap through new equity, extra borrowing, or improved deal terms with partners.
The report also notes OpenAI’s goal of reaching up to 36 gigawatts of AI compute capacity by 2030. That level of power demand would match the consumption of a large US state and requires heavy capital investment. HSBC argues that such infrastructure targets create long-term funding needs that go well beyond typical software business models.
OpenAI’s obligations include major cloud contracts with Microsoft, Oracle and Amazon. Public disclosures and media reports have cited deal values of about $250 billion with Microsoft, $300 billion with Oracle and tens of billions more with Amazon Web Services. These arrangements secure access to GPUs, storage and networking for current and future AI models.
HSBC has already raised its revenue expectations compared with earlier research. The bank now assumes that more users will pay for premium services such as ChatGPT Plus and that enterprises will expand AI budgets. Even so, the new revenue forecast still falls short of the projected infrastructure bill.
The analysis outlines possible responses for OpenAI. Management could pursue higher pricing, deepen enterprise licensing, expand advertising-supported products or renegotiate some compute contracts. However, HSBC concludes that the company will still need substantial external capital to fund the current roadmap.
HSBC also examines how the funding gap may influence large AI partners and suppliers. Oracle, Microsoft and Amazon provide the cloud platforms that host OpenAI’s models, while Nvidia and AMD supply key chips. SoftBank holds an equity stake in OpenAI and therefore shares some exposure to the firm’s long-term performance.
Recent market moves show how investors track these AI commitments. Oracle’s share price has swung sharply since announcing its large OpenAI-related cloud deals, and its credit default swap spreads have widened. HSBC notes that those shifts reflect growing scrutiny of debt-funded AI expansion and uncertainty about when large-scale AI investment will translate into sustainable profits.
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