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Prediction market odds for the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 fell sharply this week. Kalshi’s pre-2027 contract dropped from nearly 75% to 50%, while traders also priced in a far tighter path before August and July.
The shift came as markets weighed a compressed Senate calendar, unresolved disputes over yield-bearing stablecoins, and banking lobby pressure that has slowed stablecoin legislation in the past. The gap between short-dated and longer-dated contracts widened as traders reassessed the bill’s timeline.
Kalshi’s pre-2027 contract fell to 50%, while Polymarket’s 2026 passage contract held near 60%. That difference showed a wider split between institutional and retail sentiment. Polymarket’s 2026 contract also rose 16% over the prior month. By contrast, the shorter-dated Kalshi contracts before July and before August weakened fast.
Traders said the timeline now looks tight. The window for passage before August sits at 37%, while the chance before July stands at 14%.
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn had already mapped the bill’s route as a five-step process. He pointed to the Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor win, reconciliation with a Senate Agriculture companion, reconciliation with a House version, and a presidential signature.
The Senate Banking Committee cleared one of those steps on May 14. Lawmakers passed the CLARITY Act 15 to 9, but that left four more gates.
Thorn had placed 2026 passage odds near 50-50 in April. TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg was more cautious, and he told clients the bill has one-in-three odds this Congress.
Read More: CLARITY Act Odds Slide as Traders Weigh a Tougher Senate Path
The largest dispute centers on yield-bearing stablecoins. Banking groups are pushing for a full ban on stablecoin yield, and they frame the issue as a threat to deposit-funded banking models. JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum echoed that concern in public remarks.
He warned about the risk of allowing stablecoins such as USDC to generate yield for holders.
That same dispute helped delay the Senate Banking Committee markup by about four months. The committee had originally aimed for January, but lawmakers needed more time to negotiate yield language. The delay now matters for the floor schedule.
Analysts tracking the Senate calendar say only nine to 10 usable weeks remain in 2026 once August and pre-election breaks are removed.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the bill’s sponsor, pushed back on the pessimism. She said Wyoming already built a digital asset framework and argued that her bill scales that work. Her remarks briefly moved Polymarket odds higher. Still, traders continue to focus on time, not support, since the bill still needs more committee work, a Senate floor vote, and later reconciliation.
That has also kept attention on crypto assets tied to regulation. Traders now watch whether tokens linked to tokenization themes, including XRP, XLM, and ADA, face pressure if expectations cool.
The market has already priced in part of the hope around clearer crypto rules. For now, the next decision point rests on whether Congress can move fast enough to keep the CLARITY Act on track in 2026.
The CLARITY Act faces a tighter path as Senate delays, stablecoin disputes, and banking lobby pressure weaken passage odds. Kalshi and Polymarket now show mixed signals, but the main issue remains time. The bill still needs several steps before becoming law.
