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Prediction-market confidence in the CLARITY Act has dropped sharply. Polymarket now prices the bill’s 2026 passage at about 56%, down from the 73% to 75% range reached after its Senate Banking Committee advance. Traders now treat final approval as uncertain rather than likely.
The shift follows the committee’s 15-9 vote to move the bill forward. Yet the result also showed the challenge ahead, since only two Democrats backed Republicans in committee. That split left the bill with no clear path to a 60-vote Senate threshold.
The move also follows earlier optimism tied to Kalshi’s 71% odds after the Senate vote. Since then, the market has cooled. The latest pricing shows traders now separating committee success from the tougher work of final enactment.
The Senate Banking Committee gave the CLARITY Act its strongest Senate progress so far. The vote came after months of negotiation and moved the bill closer to a full Senate floor vote.
Even so, the committee's result exposed a larger problem. Republicans will need broader Democratic support if the bill must clear a 60-vote hurdle. At present, the committee's vote does not guarantee that support.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has pointed to growing bipartisan interest in the measure. She said Democrats and Republicans share a concern about keeping crypto innovation and jobs in the United States rather than losing them to other regions.
The CLARITY Act, formally called the Cryptoassets Legal Clarity and Regulatory Improvement Act, aims to create a single legal framework for digital assets. It would set clearer rules for developers, exchanges, and other market intermediaries.
The bill would also define token categories and disclosure duties. In addition, it would clarify which federal agencies enforce those rules, including the SEC, the CFTC, and banking regulators.
Lummis said the goal is to replace regulatory limbo with a more predictable system. Her office has framed the proposal as both a consumer protection measure and a step toward clearer market rules.
The bill also includes protections for non-money-transmitting developers. That group would include open-source contributors, while prosecutors would still retain authority to target bad actors who move illicit funds on-chain.
Read More: Bitcoin Nears $78K as CLARITY Act Optimism Lifts Crypto Market Sentiment
The recent drop in odds shows traders now focus on the bill’s next steps, not only on committee momentum. The CLARITY Act still needs a full Senate vote, possible reconciliation with House language, and the president’s signature.
That path remains open, but it is not simple. The market now reflects the need for more Democratic support beyond the two committee votes the bill already secured.
Lummis has warned that every delay gives firms more reason to build elsewhere. She said uncertainty can push companies toward Europe, the Middle East, or Asia, where rules may appear clearer.
The CLARITY Act has gained Senate committee approval, but prediction markets now see a tougher road to full passage in 2026. The bill still needs broader bipartisan support, a full Senate vote, House alignment, and presidential approval before becoming law.
