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Bitcoin trades above $66,000 after briefly crossing $67,000 a day earlier. The rebound followed improved sentiment linked to a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Yet several indicators show weak buying support.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit compared Bitcoin’s current weekly chart with the structure seen before the FTX collapse in 2022. At that time, Bitcoin moved higher while forming a bullish divergence near $20,000. Many traders viewed the signal as an early recovery, but a sharp selloff followed and pushed the market into capitulation.
The analyst said a similar divergence has appeared again as Bitcoin attracts renewed buying interest. Still, he questioned whether the rebound marks a durable bottom. “The market could still face one final capitulation move,” he said. The comparison does not confirm the same outcome, since conditions differ from 2022.
On-chain figures also show a wide gap between unrealized and realized losses. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said Bitcoin holders currently carry one of the largest unrealized losses in the asset’s history. However, realized losses remain lower, suggesting many investors have not sold. He warned that ‘capitulation may still be ahead’ if holders begin selling heavily at a loss.
Bitcoin’s rise followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran. The plan is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, end hostilities and remove the US blockade affecting Iranian ports. Both sides are due to sign the agreement on June 19.
However, key terms remain unresolved. The countries are expected to hold 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Analysts have therefore treated the market response with caution. LVRG Research director Nick Ruck said Bitcoin could face a “volatile path” if the agreement breaks down or oil prices rise again.
The Bank of Japan also raised its benchmark rate from 0.75% to 1% on June 16, its highest level since 1995. Bitcoin held above $66,000 after the decision, while its bond stance limited immediate market pressure. Higher Japanese rates could reduce demand for yen-funded carry trades over time.
Swissblock said Bitcoin’s price momentum and on-balance volume remain in a weak participation phase. Price momentum stood near negative one, while on-balance volume fell to its lowest level in years. Both readings stayed negative despite Bitcoin’s rebound from below $60,000 on June 6.
The firm said bear-market declines often begin with weaker momentum, followed by lower participation and another price drop. It added that a stronger recovery usually requires both indicators to return to positive territory. “Until then, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table,” Swissblock said.
Technical indicators also show mixed conditions. Bitcoin remains below its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index sits below the neutral level of 50.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has turned positive, showing that the corrective bounce has not ended.
Ali Martinez identified the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed level near $48,000 as a possible downside reference. Doctor Profit has also placed a potential cycle-bottom range between $40,000 and $48,000. These targets remain forecasts, while $60,000 serves as the nearest major support.
