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Bitcoin (BTC) has had a challenging year, dropping 50% from its all-time peak of $126,000 and testing investor confidence. Some market participants believe the leading cryptocurrency is poised for a strong recovery by the end of the year and could reach a high of $100,000.
Data from 2013 shows that Bitcoin has seen an average return of around 77% per quarter and median returns of around 48% in the fourth quarter. In the past, the October-December quarter has delivered stronger performance than any other quarter.
As long as Bitcoin remains in the $60K and $70K range for the next few months and trades into the fourth quarter at the higher end of this range, reaching the $100K mark is possible. But in 2025, Bitcoin reversed this trend, falling 23% in the final quarter.
Longtime crypto investor Arthur Hayes claims a correction in AI-related assets could bring the funds back into digital assets, Bitcoin in particular. Hayes believes that investors have been caught up in the excitement of AI opportunities and neglecting Bitcoin's value proposition over the long term.
In October 2025, a Goldman Sachs research report suggested that parts of the AI sector were showing signs of speculative bubbles. While the excitement over AI cools down, Bitcoin may find a way to rise in value, as investors look for other stores of value.
Polymarket data shows that the odds of Bitcoin hitting the $100,000 threshold in 2026 are just 17% at this time. The prediction market has the following probabilities: 35% chance of Bitcoin losing value below $40,000, 15% chance of Bitcoin losing value below $30,000, and 7% chance of Bitcoin losing value below $20,000.
Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, continues to forecast a $100,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026.
Initially, the institution was expecting Bitcoin to hit $300,000, and reduced the estimate to $150,000 at the start of the year. The $100,000 is a new target and is more cautious given the shifting market dynamics.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Struggles Between $63,000 and $65,000
According to Kendrick, Bitcoin's decline below the $60,000 level was driven by temporary factors rather than a deterioration in its underlying investment thesis.
The correction was a result of several developments:
More than $2 billion in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outflow over the last week
Strategy carried out part of a sell-off in its Bitcoin holdings
Around $1.8 billion in leveraged positions across the market were liquidated
After that, Bitcoin turned steady in the $63,000-$64,000 area, a price space that Kendrick said appears to be an appealing area of accumulation.
Why it Matters
The debate over Bitcoin reaching $100,000 highlights a massive tug-of-war for global capital. While institutional giants point to historical end-of-year rallies and temporary market washouts as buying opportunities, prediction markets remain highly skeptical. Ultimately, Bitcoin's fate may rest on whether tech investors pull money out of an overheated AI sector and return to decentralized digital assets.
Short-term forecasts have been variable, but Standard Chartered is very optimistic about the long term.
The bank predicts that Bitcoin will hit $500,000 by 2030. The institution has also predicted that by the end of the decade, it will sell Ethereum at $40,000.
Yes, several analysts believe it is possible, particularly if Bitcoin maintains its historical fourth-quarter strength. However, market volatility remains a significant risk factor.
According to Geoffrey Kendrick, recent declines were caused by temporary market events such as ETF outflows and liquidations rather than a breakdown in Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals.
Some experts, including Arthur Hayes, believe that a correction in AI-related investments could shift investor capital toward digital assets like Bitcoin.
ETF outflows, adverse regulatory developments, weakening investor sentiment, and broader economic uncertainty could limit Bitcoin's upside potential.
The bank projects Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2030, reflecting confidence in the asset's long-term adoption and growth prospects.
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