XRP Price Prediction: Will ETF Approval Drive It Up to $8 from $3?

Overview: 

• XRP holds strong near $3 as ETF approval odds climb above 90%.

• Spot ETF approval could attract $5–8 billion in institutional inflows.

• Breaking resistance around $3.40 may open a path toward $4–6, with $8 possible if conditions align.

XRP, the digital asset closely associated with Ripple, has once again become a center of attention in the cryptocurrency market. Its recent rally to the $3 level has sparked debate about whether the potential approval of a spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States could push the token to new highs, even reaching the $8 mark. 

To understand whether this outcome is realistic, it is important to study XRP price in today’s market conditions, news about ETF applications, technical indicators, and broader economic factors.

Current Market Position

XRP price is currently trading between $2.95 and $3.05, with strong support around the $2.70 to $2.90 range. Resistance levels have been observed between $3.33 and $3.60, which means that if XRP can cross these barriers, it could open the door to further upward movement.

The macroeconomic environment is also supportive of risk assets. Inflation in the United States has cooled to about 2.9% year-on-year, creating expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as September. A softer monetary stance generally encourages capital to flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, which could provide a tailwind for XRP’s price.

The ETF Approval Buzz

The biggest factor driving speculation is the potential approval of spot XRP ETFs. Analysts from Bloomberg have assigned a 95% probability that such ETFs will eventually be approved, with critical decisions expected in October 2025. On prediction markets such as Polymarket, the odds of approval have climbed as high as 90% to 98%.

One of the most anticipated launches is the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF, which is expected to begin trading around September 12. This fund will be structured under the Investment Company Act of 1940, making it one of the first regulated vehicles to provide investors with exposure to XRP in the United States. 

Other large asset managers, such as Franklin Templeton and Invesco, have also filed applications, although the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed decisions on their proposals. Despite these delays, optimism remains high that multiple spot XRP ETFs will ultimately receive approval.

Why ETFs Could Transform the Market

Approval of an ETF could have several effects on the XRP market. First, it would bring significant institutional inflows. Analysts believe that spot XRP ETFs could attract between $5 billion and $8 billion in initial investments. This would increase demand for XRP at a time when the circulating supply remains limited, creating upward pressure on prices.

Second, ETFs would allow traditional investors, such as pension funds, hedge funds, and large-scale asset managers, to buy XRP through regulated channels. This would not only increase liquidity but also enhance the legitimacy of the asset in the eyes of regulators and traditional finance. Ripple already has partnerships with over 300 financial institutions around the world, and an ETF would reinforce its position as a utility-focused cryptocurrency.

Third, ETF approval would reduce the uncertainty that has surrounded Ripple’s ongoing legal battles with regulators. Although some risks would remain, the green light for an ETF would signal that the US financial system recognizes XRP as a viable asset class, which could attract even more capital.

Also Read: XRP vs TRON in 2025: Price Performance and Long-Term Utility Compared

Technical Picture of XRP

Technical analysis also provides reasons for optimism. Analysts have noted a falling wedge pattern on XRP’s price chart, a formation that often signals a bullish breakout. In addition, a double-bottom pattern has formed near the $2.70 support level, with a neckline around $3.38. If XRP breaks through this neckline, it could potentially rally toward $4 or more.

Momentum indicators also point in a positive direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral 50 level, suggesting growing buying pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) also show early signs of strengthening upward momentum.

If XRP manages to break the $3.30 to $3.40 resistance zone, analysts believe it could test levels of $4 to $5 in the near term. Some models go further, predicting possible rallies to $10 or even $16 if multiple spot ETFs are approved and institutional inflows are strong.

XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Really Reach $8?

The central question for investors is whether XRP can realistically rise from $3 to $8. Achieving this target would mean a near-tripling of the price, something that would require a powerful set of catalysts.

For XRP to reach $8, ETF approval would need to happen soon and trigger massive institutional inflows. Strong participation from asset managers like Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Invesco could add billions in new capital. 

Regulatory clarity, especially the resolution of Ripple’s long-standing dispute with the SEC, would also need to be achieved. Finally, supportive macroeconomic conditions such as lower interest rates would make risk assets more attractive, providing another push for XRP.

However, risks remain. Large transfers of XRP have been spotted moving to exchanges like Binance and Bithumb, with 610 million XRP sent to Binance and 870 million to Bithumb in early September. Such inflows often suggest potential selling pressure, which could hold back price growth. 

In addition, while ETF approval is widely expected, delays or restrictive conditions could weaken enthusiasm. The broader crypto market also remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and sudden downturns.

Also Read - XRP Price Prediction: Could Whale Activity Push it Back to $3?

A Path with Conditions

XRP reaching $8 is not impossible, but it requires several favorable developments to occur at the same time. In the short term, technical patterns point to a potential rise toward $4 to $6 if ETF news turns positive. A climb to $8 would likely require stronger momentum and sustained buying interest, along with clear regulatory approval and major institutional participation.

The near-term focus for traders and investors will be on whether the SEC approves the first spot XRP ETF in September and whether institutional inflows materialize. If these conditions are met, the XRP market could be set for one of its most significant rallies in years. However, without these catalysts, expectations of an immediate surge to $8 may remain more speculative than realistic.