XRP Price Outlook: Ripple Faces a Pivotal Test at Major Resistance

Ripple’s XRP currently trades at $1.07. It bounced back from recent lows at $1.04 on July 28 and is approaching a key technical level at $1.08. While broader sentiment remains cautious, improving institutional participation, steady whale accumulation, and strengthening derivatives data suggest buyers are gradually regaining confidence. 

Institutional Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

Institutional interest in XRP has increased in recent sessions. According to SoSoValue, US spot XRP ETFs recorded $584,000 in net inflows on Wednesday and $5.98 million in fresh inflows on Thursday. This extended the products' inflow streak to three consecutive weeks.

The recent inflow is driven by the plans of the tokenization of the Aviva Investors USD Liquidity Fund, a UK asset management company managing around $350 billion in assets, to launch a tokenized share class on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). The development follows the implementation of the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment, an upgrade expected to strengthen XRPL's appeal for institutional tokenization projects.

Whale Accumulation Continues Despite Market Caution

Large volume holders with between 10,000 XRP and 100,000 XRP have continued to increase their risk exposure, as their cumulative holdings climb to 11.9% of the total supply on Thursday, up from 11.75% the day before and 11.64% on July 1. 

According to Santiment, investors with between 100,000 XRP and 1 million XRP have also increased their appetite to hold 11.75% of the token’s total supply, up from 11.45% on July 1.

Retail trading is also gaining presence in derivatives markets, with perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) reaching around 2.27 billion XRP, as traders continue to build positions ahead of the breakout.

Also Read: How Much XRP Should You Own to Retire Comfortably in 2026?

Technical Structure

XRP price trades at $1.042, remaining under pressure, as it holds below the 50-day EMA at $1.127, the 100-day EMA at $1.211, and the 200-day EMA near $1.405, keeping a broader bearish bias. The RSI reads 43.66, signaling modest downside bias, and the MACD line is marginally below zero while it flattens, which suggests a weak bearish tone.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at the 50-day EMA at about $1.127, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.211. On the downside, the closest notable support is at $1.000, where buyers already defended the price before; a daily close below this level could open the door for a deeper corrective move.

The funding for XRP jumped to 0.089%, the highest since July 20, which suggests that traders holding long positions are willing to pay a premium to keep their positions alive, as per CoinGlass. Meanwhile, Binance's long/short ratio has climbed to 2.57, indicating bullish positions significantly outnumber bears.

FAQs:

1. Why is XRP approaching a critical resistance level?

XRP is trading below its key moving averages, with the 50-day EMA around $1.127 acting as the first major resistance. A sustained breakout above this level could improve short-term momentum and shift sentiment in favor of buyers.

2. What do the latest XRP ETF inflows indicate?

According to SoSoValue, XRP ETFs recorded $584,000 in net inflows on Wednesday, followed by $5.98 million on Thursday. The continued inflows suggest that institutional interest in XRP is gradually improving.

3. Are XRP whales continuing to accumulate?

Yes. Santiment data shows wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 XRP increased their share of the total supply to 11.9%, while wallets with 100,000 to 1 million XRP also expanded their holdings, indicating continued confidence among large investors.

4. What do the funding rate and long/short ratio reveal?

According to CoinGlass, XRP's funding rate has climbed to 0.089%, the highest since July 20, showing that long traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain bullish positions. Binance's 2.57 long/short ratio also reflects stronger bullish positioning.

5. What are the key support and resistance levels for XRP?

Immediate resistance is located near the 50-day EMA at $1.127, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.211. On the downside, $1.00 remains the key psychological support, and a break below that level could increase the risk of further downside.