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XRP is weakening against Bitcoin as traders track a possible deeper move in the XRP/BTC pair. Trading analyst ChartNerd says the pair could fall toward a long-term support zone before any stronger rotation appears. The view comes as Bitcoin dominance rises, XRP struggles near key supply levels, and altcoin demand remains limited.
Trading analyst ChartNerd has warned that XRP may remain weak against Bitcoin in the near term. In a May 25 analysis, the analyst said the XRP/BTC ratio could fall by more than 57% and retest the 0.0000073 area.
That zone acted as support in 2024. However, the pair has faced rejection near 0.000029 through 2025. This repeated rejection has kept pressure on XRP, even as Bitcoin continues to attract stronger demand.
ChartNerd also pointed to the XRP/BTC pair falling below its 20-week Modified Exponential Moving Average. Traders often use this level to track trend direction. A drop below it can show weaker momentum against Bitcoin.
“XRP has been underperforming Bitcoin since 2017, with no signs of any major rotation,” ChartNerd said. The analyst added that Bitcoin climbed from $60,000 to $80,000 in three months while XRP/BTC lost its 20-week MEMA.
However, the analyst also left room for a later shift. Based on past market behavior, the fourth quarter could become a key period to watch for any XRP recovery against Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s strong market share remains one of the main reasons capital has not rotated widely into altcoins. Bitcoin dominance has risen to about 60.66%, its highest level since April 2021. This shows that traders still favor BTC over riskier crypto assets.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index remains below the level that usually signals broad altcoin strength. The index sits far under the 75 mark, which suggests that most major altcoins are still failing to outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period.
Over the week, Bitcoin gained more than XRP, showing that the expected capital rotation has not yet supported the token.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have also helped BTC maintain its lead. Strong inflows into Bitcoin funds can pull liquidity away from altcoins. As a result, assets such as XRP may struggle until crypto market traders show stronger demand outside Bitcoin.
XRP also faces its own market barriers. Around 36.8 billion XRP, close to 60% of its circulating supply, was reportedly bought between $1.44 and $1.45. This creates a key resistance area just above the current price.
When XRP moves toward that zone, some holders may sell to recover earlier losses. Without enough new buyers, this selling pressure can stop rallies before they extend further. That has kept the token trapped below stronger breakout levels.
Fresh capital inflows into XRP have also remained weak. Data cited in the market analysis shows Alphractal’s Delta Growth Rate on a 365-day moving average at -111.7. This suggests that new network demand has not yet provided strong support.
Regulatory news may still shape the next major move. The CLARITY Act remains a key catalyst watched by XRP traders. However, some analysts warn that its passage could also trigger a “sell-the-news” reaction if traders take profits after the event.
For now, XRP’s path against Bitcoin depends on demand, liquidity, and whether altcoin rotation returns. Until Bitcoin dominance weakens, XRP may remain under pressure despite regulatory hopes.
