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Ripple Labs unlocked 1 billion XRP from escrow on August 1, 2025, continuing its monthly token release cycle. This routine process is primarily meant to control the circulating supply of XRP. While the release grabbed headlines, most analysts do not expect to see much movement in price due to Ripple’s controlled re-locking strategy.
The release of 1 billion XRP is part of Ripple's ongoing process to manage and balance the supply of its token in the market. Historically, the company relocks a significant portion of the released tokens, ranging from 700 to 750 million XRP, leaving only a small amount, about 300-400 million XRP, to enter circulation. This careful approach helps prevent volatility while maintaining a steady supply.
Ripple has been releasing XRP from its escrows since 2017; it has reduced its holdings of XRP from 55 billion to approximately 35 billion. Bill Morgan, a legal consultant, noted that in the past several years, there have been large movements of escrowed XRP and no disruption in the market. Ripple has been transparent in how it manages the supply of Ripple's business token.
The 1 billion XRP release is still significant; analysts anticipate little risk of any immediate impact on XRP's price. The recent decline in XRP's price, dropping from $3.66 to $3.17 in late July, was due to profit-taking, not the release of the tokens. Previous releases from the escrow caused little market response; this time’s price adjustment is more reflective of regular trading behavior.
In addition, whale activity has increased, with over 70 million XRP moving from dormant wallets. This means large holders are actively accumulating XRP and buying more than is being distributed and are confident XRP will be up again within the medium term.
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XRP’s future performance will depend on the scheduled token release and the regulatory environment. Ripple continues to face legal challenges from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which could affect its market performance. However, analysts remain optimistic regarding the chance of a spot XRP ETF being approved as early as the end of 2025. If this happens, it will likely provide some institutional interest and liquidity to XRP.
In the broader market, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown moderate gains, but the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates has tempered some optimism. Still, institutional confidence remains strong, particularly in the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.
If XRP can break through the resistance levels between $3.35 and $3.60, analysts predict a potential price surge toward $6, with some forecasts predicting a $9-$10 price point by September 2025. However, these estimates are speculative and mainly dependent on distribution after the unlock, regulation, and market conditions.
