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XRP is trading near a key support zone as technical and on-chain data suggest the token may be forming a base. Recent market analysis from Dark Defender and other analysts points to the $1.25 to $1.30 range as a critical area, with higher resistance levels coming into view if support remains intact.
Dark Defender said XRP may have completed its corrective wave C structure on the three-day chart. In the Elliott Wave setup he shared, the correction began after XRP peaked near $3.6 in 2025 and then moved through an ABC pattern. The final leg of that decline, marked as wave C, appears to have ended near $1.31.
The chart also shows XRP moving above the upper boundary of a triangle pattern that had contained price action for months. Dark Defender described it as a “resistance-support triangle.” According to the setup, the breakout above that line may signal the end of the compression phase, while the lower boundary continued to act as support during the decline.
Another part of the setup comes from momentum data. XRP/BTC’s relative strength index dropped to 24, marking its most oversold reading since October 2025. Analysts tracking the pair said similar RSI levels in earlier cycles were followed by rebounds against Bitcoin.
Past examples cited in the analysis showed rallies ranging from 65% to 345% after similar oversold readings. June 2025 was also noted as a period when XRP/BTC rebounded from a similar zone and later posted a 61% gain against Bitcoin, while XRP’s dollar price rose about 92%.
Dark Defender also pointed to an RSI bullish cross near oversold territory on the XRP chart. Traders are now watching whether price can confirm that signal by holding support and reclaiming higher levels.
On-chain data has added to the recovery case. Analysts said XRP’s MVRV Z-score is near zero, a level that often shows holders are close to breakeven. In earlier cycles, similar readings appeared during accumulation phases.
The 0.80 MVRV pricing band, placed near $1.14, also lines up with recent lows. Analysts said that overlap places XRP near a historically important value area. Market data also shows strong buyer concentration between $1.25 and $1.30, with about 1.73 billion XRP accumulated in that range.
Dark Defender outlined several upside targets if XRP holds support and moves higher. The first target stands near $1.66, followed by $1.88 and then $2.58. For a broader cycle move, he projected a possible rise to $5.85 and said the setup could support “a new all-time high” if the breakout remains valid.
Downside levels are also in focus. If XRP falls below the $1.25 to $1.30 support band, analysts said the next area to watch is near $1.15, close to the 200-week moving average. A deeper decline could expose XRP to a move toward $0.80, which would weaken the current recovery setup.
Also Read: XRP Price Prediction April 2026: Will it Hit $1.60 or Drop to $1.15?
