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US Treasury yields moved higher on Good Friday after March payrolls topped forecasts, while Bitcoin and Ether edged lower as traders adjusted rate-cut expectations. Markets also tracked the Middle East war, oil prices, and limited holiday trading across major regions.
US Treasury bonds fell after the March jobs report came in stronger than expected. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose four basis points to 4.34%, while the two-year yield also climbed four basis points to 3.84%. The move came as traders reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The labor market data added to that shift. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, above the 60,000 increase expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. February 2026 payrolls were revised to 133,000 from 92,000, while January 2026 payrolls were revised to 160,000 from 126,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% a month earlier.
Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said, "Our read on this report was on the surface, a lot better than February 2026 – decent bounceback in payrolls, nice directional move in unemployment." He also said, "This will be an important development to monitor in the months ahead," as labor-force data showed mixed details beneath the headline numbers.
Cryptocurrencies moved lower as Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened. Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $66,704.7, while Ether dropped 1% to $2,047.83. The dollar index also rose 0.06 to 100.08 after the payrolls release.
The price moves reflected a broader shift across global markets. A firmer labor report often reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates quickly. That can support the dollar and weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
US stock markets were closed for Good Friday, which kept trading conditions thin. However, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.1% in the shortened session. Treasury markets remained open for a half day, while cash equity markets in the US stayed closed.
Asian stocks rose earlier in the day after optimism grew that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could begin to recover. Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the waterway after it had been effectively shut down since the war began. A container ship signaling French ownership exited the strait on Friday, 3 April 2026, in what appeared to be the first known transit by a vessel linked to Western Europe since the conflict disrupted the route.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%. South Korea’s Kospi rose 2.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.3%. China’s CSI 300 reversed an earlier gain and closed down 0.9%. Several Asian markets, including Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, were shut for the holiday.
Rina Oshimo, senior strategist at Okasan Securities in Tokyo, said, "Markets are wary of what could happen over the weekend." She added, "If attacks escalate or retaliations occur, oil prices could remain elevated for longer."
Oil stayed near elevated levels after rallying above $110 a barrel on Thursday, 2 March 2026. West Texas Intermediate surged 11%, while Brent settled near $109 after President Donald Trump issued new threats against Iranian infrastructure. Traders continued to monitor whether the war could disrupt energy flows for longer.
Corporate developments also stayed in focus.
Microsoft announced a four-year, $10 billion investment package in Japan tied to its AI expansion.
Blackstone-led private credit firms declined to provide more support to Medallia, adding pressure on Thoma Bravo.
Stellantis discussed options for electric vehicle production in Canada with Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology.
Alibaba released its third proprietary AI model in three days.
Max Gokhman, deputy chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, also said, "While assets gyrate on every new headline, until a clear agreement is achieved with a palatable plan for reopening the Strait, there’ll be downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on headline inflation."
