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Tesla stock enters a key earnings week with options traders preparing for a sharp move. Tesla will release its second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 22. Management will hold its earnings call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Recent options prices point to a move of about 7% in either direction by Friday. Based on Thursday’s close, that range could take TSLA stock near $365 or above $416. The shares closed Friday at $380.84 after falling 2.6%.
The expected swing shows that traders see room for a strong reaction after Tesla’s Q2 earnings. Options pricing does not predict direction. Instead, it reflects the size of the move traders are paying to protect against or capture.
Tesla shares have fallen more than 10% since the start of 2026. A 7% rise from the reference price would recover part of those losses. A similar decline would push the stock further below recent analyst targets.
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla’s valuation. Among 11 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, six rate the stock neutral, four rate it a buy, and one recommends selling. Their price targets range from $130 to $600, with a $408 average.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its Tesla price target to $417 from $415. The firm kept an equal-weight rating and expects a solid quarter. Still, its analysts said the “key investor debate remains unchanged: can Robotaxi and Optimus progress quickly enough to justify an accelerating AI investment cycle?”
Tesla’s company-compiled consensus calls for second-quarter revenue of $27.58 billion. That would compare with $22.50 billion in the same period last year. Analysts also expect non-GAAP earnings of $0.55 per share and GAAP earnings of $0.36.
The consensus places automotive revenue near $20.05 billion. Energy generation and storage revenue is projected at $3.77 billion, while services and other revenue is estimated at $3.76 billion. Wall Street expects a 19.5% gross margin.
However, analysts also forecast negative free cash flow of about $3.25 billion. Estimated capital spending stands near $6.70 billion for the quarter. Those figures place Tesla’s investment pace beside its reported sales and profit growth.
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles during the quarter and produced 451,758. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries reached 467,762. The company also deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products.
Investors are expected to look beyond vehicle sales during the call. Tesla is shifting more resources toward autonomous driving, Robotaxi services, the Optimus humanoid robot, energy storage, and other AI-linked projects.
Progress on Robotaxi and Optimus could shape the stock reaction. Analysts want clearer timelines, spending plans, and commercial targets. Tesla’s current market value places greater weight on those projects than on its car business alone.
The Tesla Semi program may also draw questions. Tesla opened a public Megacharger station in Bloomington, California, as it expands charging support for electric trucks. The company has also encouraged fleet customers to install chargers at their own depots.
Investors have submitted questions about Semi production, sales estimates, and revenue. Tesla does not answer every submitted question. Its Q2 call will provide the next scheduled update on financial results and the company’s broader growth plans.
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