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SpaceX has confidentially filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and is seeking a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. The company plans to raise as much as $75 billion. If it succeeds, the deal would become the largest IPO in history and test a still-fragile market recovery.
According to a Business Today report, the 2026 IPO market was expected to build on 2025’s rebound. However, activity has stayed muted so far. Few companies have filed, and no major listings appeared in the first two months, PitchBook said.
Instead, three giant names now dominate the outlook. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reshape liquidity this year. PitchBook said SpaceX alone could raise $50 billion to $75 billion, while OpenAI and Anthropic could add another $50 billion combined.
PitchBook described the moment as a defining one for venture capital. The research firm said those three deals could match the amount raised by US VC-backed company IPOs over the past decade. This concentration could leave less room for smaller offerings. PitchBook warned that such capital demand may crowd out companies with less distinct stories or weaker market appeal.
At the same time, the three companies already command huge private valuations. SpaceX’s recent merger with xAI values it at about $1.25 trillion. OpenAI stands near $840 billion, while Anthropic is pegged at approximately $330 billion.
PitchBook said that, if all three were to list, they would likely become the three largest VC-backed IPOs ever. The firm added that they could create more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 combined. Can public markets absorb three mega listings without shutting out smaller companies?
Such a scale could also stretch underwriting capacity. In turn, public market capital may flow toward the biggest names and away from the broader pipeline.
The timing matters because venture capital remains stuck in an extended liquidity drought, PitchBook said. Weak IPO activity, slow mergers and acquisitions, and capital trapped in late-stage private firms have prolonged this strain.
Mega IPOs could unlock billions for early investors. However, PitchBook noted that a narrow group, particularly corporates and large funds, may continue to receive these returns.
For the wider market, the outcome remains uncertain. PitchBook said the attention around these deals could push a broadly open IPO window into 2027. This would further delay liquidity timelines for other venture-backed firms. The current pipeline adds to the risk. Beyond a few names such as Discord, Cerebras, and Kraken, which is now reportedly pausing its listing, signs of a wider IPO wave remain limited.
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Recent IPO performance has also weighed on the market. In 2025, 17 unicorns went public, yet 14 priced below their private peaks. Many have since traded lower. The backdrop raises the pressure on SpaceX and its peers. PitchBook said strong listings could draw more companies into the market and unlock billions in investor returns.
Even so, weak reception could stall new offerings. PitchBook pointed to early post-listing struggles at Alibaba, Meta, and Uber as examples of how sentiment can shift after blockbuster debuts.
A poor market response, the firm said, could delay or push out planned listings for VC-backed companies. For now, PitchBook expects meaningful IPO activity to resume only in the second half of 2026, possibly after SpaceX sets the tone.
SpaceX’s planned IPO could become the largest in history and reshape the 2026 listing market. PitchBook says mega offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may unlock investor returns, but they could also drain liquidity from smaller deals and delay a broader IPO recovery.
