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Morgan Stanley has set a $300 price target on SpaceX stock, giving the newly listed company one of Wall Street’s highest forecasts. Analyst Adam Jonas began coverage with an ‘Overweight’ rating and described $300 as the firm’s ‘base case.’ SpaceX shares traded at $123.99 on July 20, below the $135 IPO price set on June 12.
The target points to about 142% upside from the latest market price. However, Morgan Stanley used an ‘intentionally wide’ valuation range. Its ‘bear case’ stands at $75, while its ‘bull case’ reaches $600. The spread reflects the number of projects that must meet growth and cost targets over many years.
Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX revenue to rise from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion in 2030. That would represent growth of about 17 times within five years. The bank projects revenue could reach $3.3 trillion by 2040, with AI services providing a large share of future sales.
The forecast goes beyond rocket launches and Starlink internet services. Morgan Stanley’s model includes terrestrial data centers, enterprise AI services, satellite connectivity and orbital computing. SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI in February placed the Grok developer and its computing assets inside the wider company.
SpaceX also presented a $28.5 trillion total addressable market in its IPO filing. About $26.5 trillion came from AI-related markets, while space and connectivity made up the remaining $2 trillion. Those figures describe the full market SpaceX could serve. They do not represent company revenue forecasts.
SpaceX plans to use Starship and large satellite networks to support computing infrastructure in orbit. The company has discussed placing AI data centers above Earth. Satellites could use solar power and avoid some land, power and cooling limits faced by ground facilities.
Still, the plan depends on Starship reaching regular and lower-cost operations. SpaceX postponed its 13th Starship test on July 16 after an engine issue triggered an automatic abort. The shares then extended their decline and closed below the IPO price for a second session.
Starship also supports future Starlink launches. Larger satellites and higher launch capacity could expand broadband coverage and carry more computing equipment. Morgan Stanley therefore treats launch reliability, satellite deployment and AI demand as connected parts of the $300 valuation.
SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion net loss on $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025. Its stock later climbed as high as $225.64 after the IPO before losing more than 40% from that peak. The latest market price leaves the company valued near $1.63 trillion.
The stock also faces possible selling pressure from share lockup expirations after the company reports second-quarter results. Reports indicate that about 1.37 billion shares could become eligible for sale. Eligible shares do not always enter the market, but a larger tradable supply can add volatility.
Morgan Stanley’s $300 target rests on long-range estimates rather than current earnings. The $75 to $600 range shows how the valuation changes under different launch, AI and cash-flow assumptions. SpaceX’s earnings reports, Starship tests and AI contracts will provide new data for those forecasts. The stock also remains sensitive to launch updates.
Also Read: SpaceX Stock Falls Below IPO Price as Major Share Unlocks Approach
