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Galaxy Research has reduced its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, citing growing pressure on the US Senate calendar. The research firm lowered its forecast from 60% to 50%, saying the main challenge is timing rather than support for the legislation.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, explained that lawmakers face a limited window to advance the crypto market structure bill before Congress enters its August recess. He noted that several legislative priorities continue to compete for Senate floor time.
Galaxy Research said the latest revision reflects delays in the legislative process instead of concerns about the contents of the CLARITY Act. Thorn wrote that "as the Senate calendar tightens and a lack of progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than several weeks ago."
According to Thorn, the bill still lacks a unified Banking-Agriculture Committee text. In addition, Senate leaders have not announced a floor date or scheduled a motion to proceed. These missing steps have reduced confidence that lawmakers can complete the process within the available time.
Galaxy previously reduced its estimate from 75% to 60% earlier in June. The latest adjustment brings the projected odds to an even 50-50 as lawmakers continue negotiations on unresolved sections of the proposal.
Thorn stressed that the downgrade relates to legislative timing rather than the bill itself. The research team continues to view the legislation as capable of advancing if Congress schedules enough debate before the summer break.
The Senate calendar has become more crowded after President Donald Trump stated that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress also passed the SAVE Act. Thorn said the dispute has reduced available floor time for other measures, including the CLARITY Act.
He also noted that lawmakers must address other major items, including Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2027. These measures require Senate attention before the August recess.
Thorn wrote, "For a 60-vote bill that still needs a merged Banking-Agriculture text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and then House action on whatever the Senate produces, the runway is quickly declining into just a matter of weeks."
He added that Senate Majority Leader John Thune should announce floor time by early July. Without a scheduling decision, Thorn said the bill could move into September, when midterm political considerations may make difficult votes harder to schedule.
The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The proposal would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while assigning primary authority over most crypto assets to the CFTC.
The legislation has remained a major topic of discussion among lawmakers, digital asset companies, financial institutions and advocacy groups. While more than 200 crypto organizations have urged Congress to approve the bill, other groups have raised concerns about regulatory oversight and financial safeguards.
The bill is scheduled for a House hearing on July 17 as lawmakers continue discussions. Industry participants are monitoring the Senate calendar closely because the remaining legislative timetable may determine whether the proposal advances this year.
Despite lowering the probability estimate, Galaxy Research maintained that the legislation still has a realistic path forward. Thorn wrote, "We still think enactment this year has a strong chance — for a bill of this magnitude and complexity, 50-50 are pretty good odds." The coming weeks are expected to determine whether Senate leaders allocate enough time to move the bill through the remaining legislative stages.
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