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Polymarket is preparing to enter Japan and aims to secure government approval by 2030, Bloomberg reported Friday. The prediction market platform has hired Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, to lead local efforts. The move comes as regulators worldwide tighten scrutiny of prediction markets.
Polymarket sees Japan as a major untapped market. The company has already pointed to “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and across Asia. To support its push, Polymarket appointed Mike Eidlin to lead local work. Bloomberg reported that the company will help guide lobbying efforts for authorization in Japan.
The company has not publicly detailed a launch timeline beyond its 2030 goal. Why does Japan matter so much now? The answer lies in its scale and strict legal framework.
Japan keeps online gambling under tight control. The law allows betting only on limited government-approved activities, including horse racing and public lotteries. Authorities have also increased scrutiny of online betting in recent years. Violations related to online casino use can result in fines of up to $3,400 and prison terms of up to 3 years for repeat offenses.
Japan’s Penal Code also treats habitual gambling as a punishable offense. People who run gambling businesses can face up to five years in prison.
A justice ministry representative declined to comment on whether prediction markets fit within Japanese law. The representative said officials would examine individual cases under the Penal Code.
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Polymarket already lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, including the United States, under its access policy. Even so, earlier reports suggested users in restricted areas may still reach the platform through VPNs. The company has also built a Japan-focused presence online. Its Japanese X account has more than 53,000 followers, which makes it one of its largest regional communities on the platform.
Regulatory pressure is growing across Asia as well. India recently warned that prediction market platforms are illegal and should be blocked by internet providers. South Korea is also reviewing the sector. A media regulator there is assessing whether Polymarket hosts illegal gambling content, according to a spokesperson.
Trading activity has also weakened. Token Terminal data showed Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume fell nearly 15% in April, while Kalshi’s volume rose about 13%.
Polymarket is also expected to face broader limits. Start Polymarket data shows the platform is blocked in roughly 34 countries and faces “close-only” restrictions in four others.
Polymarket is pushing to enter Japan by 2030 as it seeks approval for prediction markets in a tightly regulated country. The move comes amid rising scrutiny across Asia, stricter gambling rules in Japan, and growing pressure on the platform from regulators and rivals.
