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The S&P 500 has gained 3.12% this month, adding about $2.1 trillion in market value. This increase nearly matches the total capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin has risen only 2% during the same period and trades near $64,600. Analysts link the gap to AI-focused stock demand, crypto market pressures, higher bond yields, and cautious positioning. Bitcoin trades near July levels within a narrow range.
The S&P 500 now carries a record market value near $70.5 trillion, with the index around 7,723 points. The Nasdaq and Dow have also advanced as investors direct capital toward large technology companies.
Adam Haeems, Tesseract Group’s head of asset management, said the rally centers on sectors with limited links to Bitcoin. “Partly because the equity rally is being driven by areas to which bitcoin has little direct exposure, particularly AI and semiconductor stocks,” he said.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices offer faster support to listed companies through reduced operating costs. Haeems said Bitcoin may benefit later through softer inflation expectations and possible Federal Reserve policy changes. However, uncertainty around the September policy outlook limits that path.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, also linked the difference to concentrated equity demand. “The stock rally is biased towards AI and mega-caps which doesn't necessarily translate into crypto flows,” he said.
Bitcoin also faces sector-specific problems that do not directly affect the equity market. These include the $120 million Coldcard exploit, uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act, and Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sales.
Haeems said these events have weakened sentiment without creating a wider credit crisis or forced selling cycle. Strategy has sold Bitcoin during three consecutive months, adding another concern for traders watching corporate demand.
Moreover, rising bond yields make government debt more attractive than non-yielding crypto assets. Real Treasury returns stand at their highest level since 2008, encouraging some capital to stay outside digital asset markets.
Stablecoin supplies show the same pressure. Haeems said USDT supply dropped from about $190 billion in April to $183 billion. USDC supply declined from $79.5 billion to $72 billion during the period.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said many traders expect Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to produce an October bottom. That view has encouraged market participants to wait instead of building positions during the equity rally.
However, Thielen said Bitcoin’s ability to hold steady despite the Federal Reserve’s firm stance could support another reading. “Traders are underestimating the upside risk from a less hawkish Fed, and overlooking the possibility that the four-year cycle has already bottomed,” he said.
ETF activity has also lacked a clear pattern. United States spot Bitcoin funds recently recorded $61.53 million in outflows, ending three weeks of modest inflows. The products then attracted $626 million this week, their strongest total since early May.
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said several consecutive inflow days would help confirm stronger institutional demand. He identified Bitcoin support between $63,000 and $63,400, with resistance stretching from $64,500 to $66,000.
Wintermute said some ETF demand may reflect arbitrage rather than direct bullish positioning. Meanwhile, analysts expect possible fourth-quarter catalysts from regulatory progress and renewed stablecoin growth.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC Recover to $63K Despite ETF Outflows?
