Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC Recover to $63K Despite ETF Outflows?

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its pullback on Tuesday, falling back below $63,000 after losing over 2.8% last week. Institutional demand slowed, as US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw modest net outflows of $61.53 million during the period. The outflows, however, are relatively small, and if the institutional demand for Bitcoin can keep turning, it could maintain the current corrective momentum and further cap Bitcoin's price recovery.

Coldcard Wallet Exploit 

Fresh Coldcard exploit wave raises liquidation fears. According to Galaxy Research Head of Research Alex Thorn, attackers could prepare for another coordinated attack on vulnerable Coldcard hardware wallets.

Market experts say they have identified 218 transactions by attackers using 462 compromised addresses that transferred approximately 388.9 BTC to 216 newly created wallets between Bitcoin blocks 960,778 and 960,792. 

The activity is about 45 times up from the pre-incident baseline, with some movement of funds toward second-hop addresses already underway. K33 Research noted that the vulnerability is a critical flaw in the firmware code that made wallet recovery seeds less random.

Also Read: Bitcoin Faces August Pressure as War and ETF Outflows Deepen

Technical Structure 

Bitcoin ended the week 2.8% below its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of $63,769. The cryptocurrency is still on the defensive on Monday, trading at less than $63,000. Maintaining the sell momentum, BTC may continue to sink towards the long-term ascending trendline near $60,000, a significant price level. 

Momentum indicators have a mixed outlook in monthly momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been declining and is now at 38, indicating weak momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has not been invalidated yet, as it remains in a bull market crossover formation created in mid-July.

The $65,520 on the weekly timeframe could bring bulls back and potentially trigger the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $78,490 if it breaks above that level. However, the short-term outlook is downhill on the daily time frame. 

On the upside, the first resistance level is at $64,004, and the next one is at the 50-day EMA line, at $64,652. Other challenges lie at the 100-day EMA at $67,192, the 200-day EMA at $72,995, and also at the important structure support at $84,410. This group of overhead resistance continues to cap recovery attempts.

On the negative side, the first major support lies at $60,000, near the long-term ascending trendline on the weekly chart and bears significant importance for bulls to hold, as they may be looking for a place to retreat.

FAQs:

1. Why is Bitcoin trading below $63,000?

Bitcoin has come under pressure due to slowing institutional demand, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows. Negative market sentiment has also been amplified by the ongoing Coldcard wallet exploit and cautious technical indicators.

2. What impact do Bitcoin ETF outflows have on BTC prices?

ETF outflows indicate reduced institutional buying interest. While the latest outflows are relatively modest, continued selling by institutional investors could slow Bitcoin's recovery and extend its current correction.

3. What is the Coldcard wallet exploit?

The exploit is linked to a firmware vulnerability that generated weaker recovery seed phrases on certain Coldcard hardware wallets. Attackers have reportedly moved nearly 389 BTC from compromised wallets, raising concerns over additional selling pressure.

4. What are the important Bitcoin price levels to watch?

The key support remains around $60,000, while immediate resistance is seen at $64,004, followed by the 50-day EMA at $64,652. A sustained move above $65,520 could improve the bullish outlook.

5. Is Bitcoin's long-term trend still bullish?

Despite the current pullback, Bitcoin continues to trade above its long-term ascending trendline. Technical indicators suggest short-term weakness, but a recovery above major resistance levels could restore bullish momentum over the medium term.