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Bitcoin is trading without a clear trend as analysts weigh the chance of a breakout against signs of continued market stress. Price has remained below $70,000 for weeks, while on-chain data show that large holders and long-term investors are still realizing losses. That has kept focus on whether Bitcoin is building a base or moving toward another drop.
Bitcoin has remained in a tight range for months, keeping traders focused on the next major move. Michael van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital said, “The longer it lasts, the heavier the breakout will be.” He also said Bitcoin “remains stagnant in this area,” with “literally no direction,” while pointing to $71,000 as a key level.
Bitcoin has not traded above that mark since March 26. Since falling to a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6, it has moved between $60,000 and $74,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $67,089.
The long period of sideways trading has kept sentiment weak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Extreme Fear” territory with a score of 11 on Saturday. Analyst Ted also said $60,000 “wasn’t the bottom” and warned that “there’ll be one final capitulation before the bottom.”
Glassnode data showed that wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC realized losses averaging $337 million per day in the first quarter of 2026. That made it the worst quarter for that group since 2022.
Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC realized about $188.5 million in daily losses during the quarter. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC added another $147.5 million. Combined, those groups have locked in about $30.91 billion in realized losses so far in 2026.
Another sign of pressure has come from long-term holders. Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Realized Loss chart showed losses of nearly $200 million per day on a 30-day average basis since November 2025. That suggests investors who held coins for more than six months are still selling below their purchase price.
In its weekly report, Glassnode said, “A meaningful cooldown toward levels below $25M per day would represent a more compelling signal of exhaustion in selling pressure.” The firm added that such a move would be “a prerequisite for the base formation that historically precedes a sustainable bull market transition.”
CryptoQuant data added to that view. Around 11.2 million BTC remained profitable, while about 8.2 million BTC were held at a loss. Analyst Darkfost said these figures are moving closer to levels seen during earlier bear markets, when Bitcoin reached deeply discounted conditions.
However, not all analysts read the data the same way. Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima said the market looks more like the early or middle phase of a bear market than a final bottom. He said Bitcoin could be building a structural base near $55,000, though more downside or a longer period of sideways trading may still come before conditions fully reset.
Also Read: Crypto Markets Eye $2.1B Options Expiry as Bitcoin Price Holds Near $68K
