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Bitcoin remained under pressure at the end of March, while fresh market data showed that a deeper correction could push the path back to record highs into 2027. At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a four-week inflow, with fund flows and trading activity both weakening. Together, the data pointed to a market still searching for a firm bottom as price, liquidity, and investor demand stayed under strain.
Bitcoin traded near $66,770 after erasing all of its March gains. The asset was down 1.40% on the monthly chart and 24.6% for the first quarter of 2026. Ecoinometrics data showed that the depth of a drawdown often shapes how long Bitcoin takes to recover to its previous peak.
According to this analysis, every additional 10% decline has historically added about 80 days to the recovery period. At the current 48% drawdown from the October 2025 peak of $126,000, the full recovery cycle is estimated at 300 days. Around 172 days have already passed, leaving about 125 to 130 days if the low has already formed near $60,000.
However, other market indicators suggested that the bottom may not yet be confirmed. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index or BCMI stood near 0.27, which remained above the 0.15 level that marked cycle bottoms in major downturns since 2018. In earlier cycles, BCMI fell to 0.15 in 2018, 0.147 in 2020, and 0.12 in November 2022 as Bitcoin reached bear market lows.
Selling activity from larger holders added to concerns about further downside. Trader Ardi said whale delta versus retail delta dropped to -22.13, its most aggressive sell level since October 2024. Ardi said, “Larger players are selling into this structure harder than they have in 18 months. That does not mean price has to collapse immediately. But it does mean this level is being tested with real sell pressure pressing into it.”
Liquidity data also showed weaker market conditions. CMCC Crest managing partner Willy Woo said the broader setup remained bearish as both spot and futures liquidity deteriorated. Woo had earlier mapped a rebound to the mid-$70,000 region in March, but later said the broader market regime had weakened.
From a cycle perspective, Woo identified the $40,000 to $45,000 range as a typical bear-market floor, with timing leaning toward the fourth quarter as the end of the bearish phase. If Bitcoin falls into this zone, the drawdown from the $126,000 peak would deepen to about 64% to 68%. Based on Ecoinometrics data, this type of decline has historically stretched the recovery period to around 440 days from the cycle high, which would place a return to prior highs after Q2 2027.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $296.18 million in net weekly outflows, according to SoSoValue. This ended a four-week inflow run that had brought in more than $2.2 billion. The weekly reversal came after back-to-back daily withdrawals on Thursday and Friday, including $225.48 million in outflows on Friday alone.
Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $55.93 billion, while total net assets fell to $84.77 billion from more than $90 billion a week earlier. Weekly trading volume also dropped to $14.26 billion from $25.87 billion earlier in March, showing slower activity as prices stayed range-bound.
A Bitunix analyst described the macro setup as “surface stability, internal imbalance” and said, “Capital is not exiting the market, but neither is it willing to take directional risk.” Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs posted $206.58 million in weekly outflows, extending their losing streak to a second straight week.
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