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Bitcoin price begins 2026 in a tight range, capping off the previous year with a small loss. The slight decline broke the pattern of favorable year-end outcomes observed in prior years.
Bitcoin prices in 2025 moved under stronger macroeconomic forces than in previous years. The influence of policy attitudes, growth trends, and liquidity conditions drove overall risk preferences. Nevertheless, Bitcoin prices failed to extend the late-year downtrend into a clear-cut capitulation phase.
Currently, it appears there is a move to consolidate rather than panic selling. BTC’s price action remains close to the high $80,000 regions and struggles to recapture $90,000. Furthermore, it appears there is a balance between buyers and sellers.
Liquidity conditions are still important to the desks that monitor funding flows, spreads, and repo activities. When the liquidity provision gets tight, Bitcoin price tends to respond more quickly; thus, traders maintain stops at tighter levels and smaller positions in 2026.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holders slipping back into net losses. This group often drives momentum during expansions, and signs of stress can influence overall direction. Aggregate realized profit and loss for short-term holders turned negative again, with margins near -12%.
This deterioration stands out because Bitcoin price remains elevated compared with prior cycle drawdowns. Besides, the data suggests stress builds under the surface instead of after a full washout. This setup can increase sensitivity to headlines and sudden price spikes.
CryptoQuant also points to Bitcoin’s proximity to the short-term holder cost basis. This area often acts as a behavioral battleground because traders weigh cutting losses versus holding. Therefore, reactions can intensify when Bitcoin price trades around that level for several sessions.
The scale of losses still looks moderate compared with historic capitulation periods. In earlier resets, short-term holders faced deeper and longer pressure. Additionally, the lack of extreme stress so far suggests the broader structure has not broken down.
Technical structure on higher time frames shows a transition from trend expansion to consolidation after a sharp pullback from the $120,000–$125,000 zone. Bitcoin price found demand at the mid-$80,000s and then stabilized. Downside momentum slowed significantly as recent candles printed with lighter volume.
Bitcoin price is also trading above the 200-day moving average. The latter remains positive. This maintains the current long-term uptrend but could be set back due to the fall of shorter-term averages above.
The zone support between $85,000 and $88,000 is essential for the premise of consolidation. This range could help create support levels for a relief rally. Support levels observed by analysts range from $95,000 to $100,000, in case there’s a revival.
On the other hand, in the case of a decisive breach of the level of support, the zone of deeper retracement could see the resumption of risk. This is expected to lead to the extension of the loss incurred by short-term holders of the cryptocurrency.
Also Read: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Bears Fail to Extend November Sell-Off: Analyst Explains Why
