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Bitcoin nears the end of 2025 under heavy pressure, but traders highlight “strong signals” for a 2026 rebound. BTC traded near $87,000 in late December after a pullback from the $126,000 peak set on Oct. 6. Sellers kept the price capped below $90,000, which many analysts treated as the near-term trigger into the new year.
Several metrics drew attention to the year's end. Analysts cited a possible “Christmas bear trap,” moderating spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and cooling long-term holder sell pressure. At the same time, derivatives positioning shifted as Binance overtook CME in Bitcoin futures open interest.
Analyst James Bull described the late-December dip from $90,000 as a potential bear trap that could reverse in January. He referenced prior year-end moves where Bitcoin slipped into late December, then rebounded early in the new year. Bull linked the setup to brief breaks below that support stop-loss selling.
The Bitcoin Therapist also said the old four-year cycle may no longer control Bitcoin’s timing. He suggested BTC could set a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2026. Bull linked the shift to ETF access and corporate treasuries alongside rate cuts and liquidity.
ETF flow data stayed central to the Bitcoin price outlook. Bull said net outflows had fallen sharply from about -1,600 BTC on Nov. 21 and now trend toward flat. He compared the pattern to April, when stabilizing flows preceded a 33% rally that peaked on May 22.
Daily flow reports still showed mixed demand in late December. Farside Investors recorded a $19.3 million net outflow on Monday, marking seven straight sessions of redemptions. BlackRock’s IBIT saw $7.9 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC posted $5.7 million in inflows.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Trades Near $87,100 Amid Market Consolidation
TradingView data showed Bitcoin price consolidating in a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The structure held price between converging trendlines as volatility tightened. Analysts said a daily close above the upper boundary near $90,000 would confirm a bullish breakout.
Using the triangle’s measured move, the setup pointed to roughly $107,000 to $107,400, with resistance near $94,000 and $106,000. Citi analysts also published a 12-month base case of $143,000 and a bull case of $189,000, citing ETF demand. Traders also watched risk markers, including rainbow-chart zones often associated with $60,000 to $80,000 ranges.
Corporate activity added another positioning signal. Japan-listed Metaplanet reported buying 4,279 BTC for about $451 million to reach 35,102 BTC, and it cited 8.58 billion yen in 2025 revenue from an options-based income unit. CoinGlass data showed Binance leading with about 129,080 BTC in open interest versus roughly 112,340 BTC on CME.
CME’s open interest fell below $10 billion, according to the same dataset. Velo data showed the basis rate sliding from about 15% to near 3%. CoinGlass showed total BTC futures open interest near $57.4 billion after a notable 24-hour drop.
