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XRP holds $2.30 despite a 4.6% weekly decline.
A breakout above $2.50 could resume bullish rally toward $5.
Legal clarity remains essential to sustain upward momentum.
Market cap comparisons with Ethereum suggest ambitious but plausible upside scenarios.
XRP, the coin of the Ripple network, is still holding strong above the $2.30 area despite the 4.6% decrease in the last week. The recent price correction comes after a mid-May price peak of $2.65, when traders moved to collect profits from recent rallies.
XRP is consolidating around $2.30, testing a key support zone on the 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $2.27 sits at this support level, watch for price action around this very important area of $2.30. A breakdown below this level could expose XRP to $2.07 while a bounce above $2.34 (0.5 Fibonacci) could see the XRP case a rally back to $2.50 - $2.60.
The price action resembles a triple-peaked rounding pattern, with at least three rejections from the $2.60 - $2.65 area, hinting that XRP may be locally exhausted at the $2.60 - $2.65 area.
The MACD has started to trend downward for the ongoing bearish momentum to fade but has not confirmed yet a bullish crossover.
Although the short-term decline coincides with broader market consolidations, the long-term bullish outlook for XRP is still intact. According to trader CryptoWZRD, the current price movement of XRP is still consistent with the multi-year accumulations at 2014 - 2017 and 2012 - 2023 shape before price exploded to the upside.
From the recent swing low at $1.60 XRP has risen about 45%, which hints at at least one more lead-up. "The structure still looks bullish. If XRP can reclaim momentum above $2.50, the breakout to probably $5.00 is back in play," WZRD said on X.
Also Read: XRP’s Long-Awaited Breakout: Can the Momentum Take It to $15?
Technical analysts point to XRP’s breakout above long-standing resistance near $2.20–$2.40 as a potential inflection point. The rally, if sustained, could culminate in a retest of XRP’s all-time high of $3.84, set in January 2018. Momentum indicators and whale accumulation metrics appear supportive of further upside, though short-term volatility is expected.
“XRP’s structure is clearly bullish,” said Nina Kohli, senior crypto strategist at AltIndex Research. “Its performance has been quietly building, and this recent push confirms strong market interest ahead of any final SEC clarity.”
The implications of XRP’s ascent go beyond just price. At $5.90, the XRP market capitalization would climb to an estimated $345 billion, surpassing Ethereum’s current $317 billion. While this scenario is a hypothetical situation, it signals a growing confidence among XRP holders that the token can potentially reclaim a leadership position with respect to cross-border payments ecosystems.
But with Ethereum's recent 40% rally twice that of XRP's weekly performance doubt surrounds whether XRP can really flip ETH with respect to market cap.
“The comparison to Ethereum is ambitious,” said Josephine Ang, digital asset analyst at Parallax Markets. “ETH is benefiting from ETF inflows, staking growth, and broad DeFi utility. XRP needs more than price action; it needs enterprise adoption and legal clarity.”
Also Read: XRP DeFi Breakthrough: Vaultro Unveils On-Chain Index Fund Platform
Beyond price action, market observers note that XRP’s current dominance hovers around 5%, a far cry from its 30% market share peak in early 2018. Several crypto researchers argue that a return to 20% - 30% dominance could catapult XRP past $10 per token, especially in a sustained bull market.
In a more extreme bull case, analysts forecast a scenario where the global crypto market cap reaches $35 trillion by the end of the decade. Under such conditions, XRP could achieve a $1.25 trillion valuation, translating to a $20 price target a 750% surge from current levels.
Despite bullish projections, XRP’s legal challenges with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continue to cast a shadow over its outlook. While Ripple secured a partial victory in 2023, the case remains unresolved in certain areas, and any adverse decision could trigger swift market reversals.
“The regulatory path ahead is still uncertain,” said Rajat Mishra, counsel at FinBlock Legal. “Investors must recognize that XRP trades in a grey area until a final judgment or settlement is reached.”
XRP has performed well over the past week, thus confirming its status as one of the most followed altcoins in the market currently. However, with strong resistance at the $3 psychological level, as well as legal uncertainty, traders have taken a cautious approach.
Certain traders are looking to enter on pullbacks, while others view this breakout as the start of a much larger move. XRP's continued path will largely be contingent on both macro crypto sentiment and regulatory clarity in the US and elsewhere.
As the crypto market watches and waits for any further catalysts, we are left wondering: can XRP create a new all-time high despite its past problems, or will risks resurface to push us back to a more familiar path?
