XRP Pattern Echoes Early 2022 as Cost-Basis Split Puts Recent Buyers Under Pressure

XRP is showing on-chain characteristics that resemble early 2022, a period that eventually led to a deep and prolonged price decline. Recent data suggests the current market structure is creating mounting pressure on longer-term holders, while short-term buyers remain cautiously positioned in profit.

On-Chain Cost Basis Signals Growing Stress

Glassnode pointed out a troubling trend: investors who bought XRP in the last week to 1 month are now paying less than those who bought 6 to 12 months ago.

This disparity is significant as it leads to recent buyers sitting on unrealized gains while the long-term holders continue to be at a loss.

A scenario like this can gradually lead to increased selling pressure. When prices stall or are unable to go up, sellers with higher purchase prices usually take the opportunity of small rallies to sell rather than add exposure, thus reinforcing overhead supply.

Why the February 2022 Comparison Matters

In early 2022, when XRP was near $0.80. The situation was that newer buyers entered at a lower price, while the earlier holders were still at a loss.

This resulted in a steep price decline to $0.30 in the following months.

While history does not guarantee repetition, the resemblance in holder behavior has raised caution flags. 

The key difference that sets apart the scenario today is the absolute price level being higher, but still the same underlying factors, in terms of new buyers taking profit and the risk of selling off among the old holders, are observed.

$2 Emerges as a Psychological Battleground

The setup is taking place as XRP struggle to reclaim the key $2 level, a price zone that has repeatedly shaped holder behavior.

According to Glassnode, since mid-2025, each retest to $2 has aligned with roughly $500 million to $1.2 billion in realized losses per week, indicating many investors use the zone to exit positions rather than add exposure.

When prices hover below this level, pressure builds on investors waiting to break even. At the same time, short-term participants tend to accumulate at lower prices, creating a persistent tug-of-war between fresh demand and lingering supply.

Technical Structure Remains Fragile

XRP experienced a surge from $1.78 in December to $2.44 in the first half of January, only to lose most of the gains after a few days. 

At present, the token is trading below its key moving averages, which are the 20-day at $2.0413, the 50-day at $2.0641, the 100-day at $2.1875, and the 200-day at $2.3107. 

The descending trendline from July’s $3.66 peak acts as a resistance continuously capping rallies, currently sitting around $2.6-$2.7. 

Also Read: XRP in 2026: Key Predictions You Shouldn't Miss

What Comes Next for XRP

Although the present situation does not suggest a repetition of the 2022 decline, the market remains vulnerable to downward pressure as long as the cost-basis division between short-term and long-term holders continues.

XRP is now at a critical point; it can either receive a sustained demand to take in the existing supply, or a continued stagnation could raise the chances of further decline.