.png){kind=logo}
XRP is trading near $2.25 after a 30% YTD decline.
An 88% chance of spot ETF approval in 2025 could trigger significant inflows.
The technical structure shows that a bullish breakout may be near.
XRP has experienced a turbulent ride in 2025. After reaching a peak of $3.38 in January, the price has since pulled back by nearly 30%, currently trading at around $2.25. With broader market uncertainty, regulatory tension, and shifting political winds, XRP's path forward is layered with both risk and opportunity.
But could this altcoin be gearing up for a rebound? Here's a breakdown of the key factors that could reignite XRP's momentum.
Confidence in XRP's near-term performance has declined sharply. On Polymarket, the probability of XRP hitting a new all-time high in 2025 dropped from 63% in May to 39% in June. Similarly, Deribit derivatives data shows over 25% of XRP call options are only profitable if the token exceeds its $3.40 record.
However, some analysts argue that this pessimism might be overextended, especially if a few macro and policy-based catalysts begin to shift in XRP’s favor.
One of the primary challenges for XRP isn’t XRP itself; it’s Bitcoin. As the dominant cryptocurrency surged in 2025, its market dominance expanded from 38% in January to over 63%. This shift has pushed capital away from altcoins, resulting in a drying up of liquidity for tokens like XRP.
Many investors are watching Bitcoin closely. If it begins to consolidate or cool off, it could finally open up space for altcoins to rally, and XRP is likely to be a top beneficiary.
XRP’s legal entanglement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been a significant overhang. Although the SEC dropped its lawsuit against Ripple in March, investor sentiment weakened again in May when a judge declined to lift key restrictions on Ripple’s business activities.
According to Mena Theodorou, co-founder of Coinstash, "Regulatory clarity remains one of the biggest hurdles, and any progress on that front could unlock more interest from larger investors and institutions."
Until more definitive rulings are delivered or legislative reform provides guidance, XRP’s potential remains partially suppressed.
Former President Donald Trump’s vocal support for crypto has injected some optimism into the market. His proposed deregulatory policies and pro-innovation stance have been viewed as tailwinds for the industry.
However, Trump’s unpredictable approach to economic policy has also created market turbulence. His threat to impose sweeping tariffs on global trade partners, though currently on hold until July 9, adds uncertainty that could hurt risk-on assets like XRP.
As Theodorou notes, “Any surprise moves there could dampen sentiment quickly.”
Perhaps the most bullish potential catalyst lies in the growing momentum behind a spot XRP ETF.
Polymarket estimates an 88% probability that the XRP ETF will be approved in 2025.
Standard Chartered predicts that this development could trigger as much as $8 billion in inflows during its first year.
The bank also projects that XRP could double to $5.50 by year-end, and possibly reach $12.25 by 2029, citing favorable policy trends and increased institutional adoption.
Also Read: XRP's Path to $3: Is a Rally Possible Amid Market Challenges?
Beyond speculation, XRP continues to demonstrate real-world utility through Ripple’s network, which enables low-cost, real-time international payments. Should regulatory clarity be achieved, this use case could attract traditional finance players seeking faster, blockchain-powered settlement systems.
If institutional confidence returns, XRP could benefit not just from price speculation but from actual transactional demand.
XRP’s price structure is showing signs of recovery. On the daily chart, the token is forming a symmetrical triangle, bounded by resistance near $2.70 and support around $2.08.
RSI levels are improving, now hovering near 49, signaling renewed balance between buying and selling pressure
A confirmed breakout above the $2.50 - $2.60 zone could signal a move toward $3.00 - $3.40, aligning with both Fibonacci levels and previous price peaks.
As long as the $2.08 support holds, bulls may remain in control heading into Q3.
Also Read: XRP Consolidates Above $2.20, ETF Optimism & Technical Breakout Fuel Bullish Sentiment
XRP’s 2025 decline reflects broader market trends and unresolved regulatory hurdles, but its long-term potential remains intact. With growing optimism around a spot ETF, easing legal pressure, and improving technical indicators, a recovery is possible, especially if Bitcoin consolidates and capital shifts back into altcoins. For investors willing to navigate short-term uncertainty, XRP still offers room for upside.
