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Oracle stock price analysis shows strong cloud growth with Q1 revenue hitting $14.9 billion and cloud revenue rising 28%.
Oracle Corporation secures a massive $455 billion backlog, signaling strong long-term visibility for Oracle Stock.
Oracle Stock gains momentum from AI demand and strategic deals with OpenAI and TikTok, lifting investor confidence.
Oracle Corporation, one of the world’s largest enterprise technology companies, has been in the spotlight over the past weeks. The company’s stock has shown sharp moves, supported by strong demand for cloud computing, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and a series of strategic deals. Oracle has been transforming itself from a traditional database and software company into a major cloud infrastructure provider. This shift is now reflected both in financial results and in the stock price performance.
In its most recent earnings report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Oracle reported revenue of $14.9 billion, an increase of about 12% year-on-year in US dollar terms and roughly 11% in constant currency. The most impressive growth came from the cloud business. Oracle’s total cloud revenue, which includes Infrastructure as a Service and Software as a Service, reached $7.2 billion, a jump of around 28% compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
The infrastructure segment stood out with even faster growth. Infrastructure as a Service revenue rose to $3.3 billion, up about 55%. This underscores how Oracle is capturing demand in the global race for computing power, particularly as artificial intelligence applications require massive infrastructure. Meanwhile, legacy software and on-premises businesses saw modest declines of around 1–2%, which is expected given the broader industry migration toward cloud-based models.
Another striking figure was Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which surged to $455 billion, an increase of 359%. This metric represents future revenue already contracted, giving Oracle a substantial pipeline of business that will translate into revenue over time. On profitability, GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.01, down slightly from last year, while non-GAAP earnings per share rose 6% to $1.47.
The key driver of Oracle’s momentum is artificial intelligence. AI workloads are extremely resource-intensive, and global demand for cloud providers that can deliver this infrastructure is rising rapidly. Oracle’s 55% jump in IaaS revenue shows that enterprises are increasingly choosing its cloud services for AI and data-heavy operations.
The surge in RPO to $455 billion is another powerful driver. This figure signals that Oracle has secured long-term contracts that will underpin revenue for years ahead. Investors see this as a sign of stability and strong forward visibility, which explains part of the bullish sentiment around the stock.
Strategic deals are also lifting market confidence. Oracle has entered into a significant agreement with OpenAI, referred to as Project Stargate, valued at around $300 billion over the long term. While this project is expected to generate substantial revenue starting in 2027, the announcement itself strengthens Oracle’s position in the AI infrastructure space.
Oracle is central to the restructuring of TikTok’s operations. A consortium involving Oracle, Silver Lake, and other investors is set to control 80% of TikTok’s US business, with Oracle managing American data through its infrastructure. These moves confirm Oracle’s status as both a leading technology provider and a strategic partner in critical sectors.
Also Read - Oracle Slashes Jobs to Fund $500B AI Investment
Analysts are generally positive on Oracle, though with varying degrees of optimism. The average 12-month price target is in the range of $333–$340. Some of the most bullish projections put the stock at $400–$410, representing an upside of more than 30% from current levels. On the other hand, more conservative analysts suggest downside scenarios, with targets as low as $195–$208, highlighting risks associated with weakening growth.
Oracle stock price is around $306 at the time of writing, placing it near the middle of these ranges. Based on consensus, there is potential for upside of about 10 –15% in the base case scenario. If Oracle successfully executes on its cloud and AI deals, the stock could rise toward the $400 mark. However, if macroeconomic conditions worsen or execution falters, the stock could retreat into the $250–$280 zone.
Despite the strong growth story, Oracle faces risks. One challenge is valuation. After a sharp rally, Oracle is now trading at higher multiples, which means investors are already pricing in a lot of future growth. If results fall short, the stock could be vulnerable to a correction.
Another factor is capital expenditure. Building out data centers and infrastructure to meet demand requires heavy investment. These costs can put pressure on free cash flow and margins in the short term, even if they support growth in the long run.
Competition is also intense. Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud remain dominant in the cloud market. Oracle has made impressive progress, but it is still competing with industry giants that have broader customer bases and more established ecosystems.
Regulatory and geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. The TikTok deal hinges on approval from both the US and Chinese authorities. Broader AI regulations, data privacy laws, and cross-border tensions could all affect Oracle’s ability to execute on large deals.
Oracle’s stock recently delivered one of the biggest single-day gains in decades, soaring nearly 36% after the earnings release. The rally lifted its market capitalization close to the $1 trillion mark, though it has not yet crossed that milestone. This dramatic price movement shows the scale of investor enthusiasm, driven by cloud growth and the massive RPO figure.
Currently, the stock trades in the $300–$320 range. Technical forecasts suggest that in a base case, the stock could stabilize around $330–$340. Under more favorable conditions, the price could rise toward $400, while in less favorable scenarios, it may retrace to $250–$280.
The flow of news around Oracle remains highly supportive. The restructuring of TikTok in the US and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar OpenAI Project Stargate deal are central headlines. Equally important is the steady progress in Oracle’s own financials. Investors are closely monitoring whether the company can maintain cloud revenue growth above 25% over the next few quarters. Sustaining this pace would likely support a positive sentiment and keep the stock well-supported.
Also Read - Oracle and OpenAI Boost Stargate AI Data Center Capacity by 4.5 Gigawatts
Oracle is no longer just a database software company. The transformation into a cloud and AI infrastructure powerhouse is becoming clear. Strong quarterly revenue growth, a massive backlog of $455 billion, and strategic partnerships with OpenAI and TikTok underline the company’s new role in the future of technology.
Risks remain, particularly in areas such as valuation, competition, and regulation. However, the upside potential is significant if Oracle stock maintains its growth trajectory. With the shares currently near $306, and average analyst forecasts pointing to $333–$340, investors see meaningful room for gains. Optimistic cases suggest the stock could test $400, while cautious views keep the floor around $250–$280.
Whether Oracle joins the trillion-dollar club soon will depend on its ability to execute in the fast-changing AI and cloud markets. For now, the company has shown that it is a serious contender, with strong financials, strategic deals, and rising investor confidence.
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