Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH $3,000 Is The New Battleground For Bulls and Bears? What’s Next?

Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH $3,000 Is The New Battleground For Bulls and Bears? What’s Next?

The altcoins king is currently trading at $3,027.18 which is up slightly by 0.73% in the last 24 hours. ETH holds a market cap valuation of $363.82 billion and with a 24-hour trading volume of $10.83 billion which is a drop of 43.07%.

ETH Price Chart: Coinmarketcap

Recent developments in the crypto market have raised concerns. On July 7 the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate transferred 47,229 Bitcoin valued at $2.6 billion to a new address. This move is part of the process to start repaying creditors with some Bitcoin sent to a hot wallet of the Bitbank exchange. The release of these long-locked coins could potentially exert up to $4.5 billion in selling pressure on the market.

Adding to the market tension the German government has moved 7,583 BTC to exchanges since June 19 amounting to $415 million. More concerning is the fact that German authorities hold a total of 42,274 BTC valued at over $2 billion. These large transactions have contributed to market uncertainty leading to $936 million in liquidations of leveraged long positions over three days including $235 million in Ether futures.

The crypto market downturn has coincided with positive movements in traditional markets with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high on July 5. This followed the U.S. announcement of a rise in the unemployment rate for June to 4.1% which could encourage interest rate cuts by the central bank and potentially reduce the appeal of fixed-income investments.

Meanwhile the SEC has yet to approve spot Ethereum ETFs following the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has shifted his estimated approval date to next weekend. The SEC approved spot ETH ETF issuers' 19b-4 filings in May but still needs to sign off on their S-1s before the products can go live. Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store suggests that the launch week for spot ETH ETFs could theoretically be the week of July 15.

In the DeFi space a large Ethereum holder is facing potential liquidation on the Compound protocol. The whale deposited 12,734 ETH worth $40 million and borrowed $31.4 million in stablecoins with a health rate of 1.06. If ETH price drops to $2,984 the position risks liquidation.

Ethereum price action has recently turned bearish after breaking down from a bullish flag pattern that formed following the $3,973 high on May 27. The breakdown invalidated the near-term bullish pressure with price finding support at $2,809.41 on July 5. 

ETHUSD Daily Chart: TradingView

Technical indicators are painting a bearish picture. The Daily RSI is at 30 indicating oversold conditions and strong bearish momentum. The MACD is bearish with the MACD line below the signal line suggesting a negative market outlook. Moving averages are also bearish with the 50-day MA at $3,551.93, 100-day MA at $3,363.12 and 200-day MA at $3,100.80, all above the current market price.

If the price continues to decline it may retest the bullish flag support level set in mid-May after the impulsive breakout.

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