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XRP is approaching a critical weekend test against Bitcoin as traders watch if the pair can hold above a major long-term technical level. At the same time, Bitcoin has stayed near $70,000 despite a volatile week, which has kept relative pressure on altcoins. The current setup leaves XRP/BTC at an important decision point before the weekly close.
The XRP/BTC pair traded near 0.00002040 BTC, according to TradingView. That level sits close to a widely watched moving-average zone that traders often use to judge trend strength.
A weekly close above roughly 0.000021 BTC would suggest that XRP is still defending support. A close below that area would strengthen the case for a failed retest and a fresh leg lower.
The bearish target discussed in the chart analysis stands near 0.00000722 BTC. A move to that level would imply a drop of more than 64% from current XRP/BTC levels. That figure has drawn attention because it points back to prices seen before XRP’s strong 2024 relative rally against Bitcoin. The weekend close now matters because it could set the tone for the pair into the next month.
Bitcoin has remained more stable than many altcoins even after sharp swings linked to Middle East tensions and the latest Federal Reserve meeting. BTC traded around $70,672.50 in the latest market snapshot after briefly dipping below $69,000 during the week. Analysts cited valuation signals, realized price levels, and steady exchange outflows as reasons Bitcoin has avoided a deeper breakdown.
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci said Binance netflow data continued to show outflows, which often point to ongoing demand. The analyst estimated that about $55 million in BTC left Binance each day on average.
That trend supported Bitcoin’s move from $65,000 to $74,000 and helped explain why BTC held relatively firm even when broader risk sentiment weakened.
This backdrop matters for XRP/BTC because the pair reflects XRP’s performance relative to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin attracts capital and remains stable, many altcoins struggle to outperform it. That dynamic can weaken XRP/BTC even if XRP’s dollar price does not collapse. In the current market, Bitcoin’s resilience has limited room for XRP to recover relative strength.
Spot XRP has also shown limited momentum. XRP traded near $1.44 after failing to hold a move above $1.60 earlier in the week. Technical indicators stayed mixed, with the relative strength index near 50 and the MACD only slightly positive. Those readings pointed to a market that remained range-bound rather than strongly bullish.
On-chain data added another layer to the story. Santiment reported that wallets holding less than 100 XRP rose to 5.66 million, while wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 XRP reached 2.01 million.
In contrast, wallets holding more than 100,000 XRP fell to 32,054. That shift showed retail participation growing while large-holder participation weakened.
Derivative data also reflected softer conviction. Open interest in XRP futures stood near $2.50 billion, while trading volume fell sharply. Lower leverage and weaker volume often reduce the chance of a strong breakout.
As a result, the weekend close on XRP/BTC has become a signal for the near-term market. If XRP finishes the week above 0.000021 BTC, recovery hopes may stay alive. If not, traders may focus on the deeper support zone near 0.00000722 BTC.
