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XRP is facing downside risk as December closes, with momentum indicators and derivatives positioning aligning toward a bearish outlook. While the token is still trading above key psychological support, recent on-chain analysis suggests the XRP price may be in an uncertain position.
Analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted a convergence of technical and on-chain events that reveal an imminent bearish phase for the XRP price.
The analyst pointed out that the XRP on its weekly chart is showing an unsettling picture. While the XRP price hovers near recent highs, indicating intentions to recover previous levels, its momentum tells a contrasting story.
CryptoOnchain said a bearish divergence has formed between RSI and the XRP price.
On higher timeframes, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been printing lower highs even as price has hovered near recent peaks. Currently, it is at 44.56 below the neutral territory of 50.
The market is now focused on $1.80, a level that has served as both psychological and technical support. Failure to hold this area could trigger accelerated selling.
The number of newly created addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has remained relatively suppressed, averaging 3,440, down from 4,501 on December 1 and approximately 13,500 on November 11.
A low number of active addresses indicates that adoption of XRP on the protocol has declined, which in turn reduces demand. Unless a reversal occurs and new addresses increase, it could be difficult for XRP to sustain its recovery amid headwinds.
XRP open interest on Binance has dropped to $450 million, its lowest level since November 2024. This marks a significant contraction in leveraged exposure and typically reflects traders closing positions.
XRP's inability to reclaim the price of $1.90 has made the bearish outlook even stronger. In addition, the token is currently also trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
If support at $1.81 is broken, the next downside, according to analysts, is $1.68. More technical estimates suggest a 14% fall to $1.62 and an even larger 34% drop to $1.25.
If the descending triangle hypothesis continues, $1.10 emerges as a critical risk level.
Some longer-term predictions caution that if the price stays below major moving averages for an extended period, it could lead to a slide to $0.80, a possible 60% downside from the recent highs.
Also Read: Will XRP Reach $10 Next Year? The Answer Could Shock You
While US-listed XRP ETFs posted nearly $64 million in inflows last week. The cumulative net inflow stands at $1.14 billion, and net assets at $1.24 billion; the price has failed to respond positively.
The value held by addresses with over 100,000 coins has declined to approximately $104 billion, from nearly $108 billion, recorded on December 1.
Retail and longer-term holders have also been selling into rebounds, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remaining negative and trending lower.
A recovery would need a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $2.12 to ease bearish pressure, opening scope for a move toward the 100-day EMA at $2.31 and the 200-day EMA at $2.40.
XRP is currently trading around $1.89, up around 1.5% over 24 hours, but the broader setup remains fragile. Unless momentum improves and $1.90 is reclaimed with volume, the risk remains toward a breakdown.
