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XRP's quarterly close for September 2025 was near the $2.90 mark, the highest it has been in years. Analysts note the resemblance to the breakout of XRP in 2017, which led to a sharp rally to all-time highs. If the current setup holds, projections are for a possible move into the $5 - $15 range.
On-chain data shows cautious optimism. The MVRV Z-Score indicates prices are below the "overheated" level, suggesting potential gains. Medium wallets with 10,000 to 100,000 tokens remain resilient despite recent drops. Technical signals like a broadening wedge and divergence in relative strength suggest possible corrections, with risks potentially reaching $1.27 - $1.60.
XRP falling below $3 in 2025 is driven by regulatory and technical challenges. The lawsuit from the US Securities and Exchange Commission against Ripple continues to undermine market confidence.
Furthermore, delays in approving spot exchange-traded funds have further weakened sentiment. On-chain activity remains subdued, with decreasing transaction volumes and fewer active addresses indicating reduced network utility.
Technical indicators also support the bearish outlook. The death cross on XRP's daily chart was confirmed in July 2025, when the 50-day moving average dropped below the 200-day moving average.
Historically, this signal has often preceded extended downward trends. Backtests from 2022 to 2025 show mixed results, as the indicator has demonstrated inconsistent predictive value. Market data also shows that XRP is trading below the $3 resistance level, suggesting that downward pressure could persist.
Views on XRP among institutions remain divided. Some highlight the $2.50 support zone as a key level that can provide stability and trigger a rebound. Optimistic forecasts emphasize Ripple's expanding on-demand liquidity network, which handled more than $1 trillion in recent quarters.
Proponents are also citing the introduction of XRP futures and some soon-to-be available options trading contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as signs of increasing institutional adoption.
Other analysts suggest that a break of the $2.20 support could accelerate losses to $1.60 or even $1.30. Concerns are not limited to technical aspects; however, there is uncertainty about the regulatory approval of ETFs and growing competition from stablecoins and central bank digital currencies, which pose structural headwinds. Profit-taking risks also remain, with long-term holders sitting on more than $10 billion in unrealized gains.
The outlook for XRP depends on striking a balance between regulatory certainty, institutional adoption, and broader market conditions, while addressing ongoing technical risks. A sustained defence of the $2.20 - $2.50 support zone could lead to recovery towards $3.65 and beyond. However, a clear break below $2.00 could amplify bearish stories and prolong the decline.
With CME futures trading volumes exceeding $18 billion in four months, and options anticipated in late 2025, institutional interest in this area is on the rise. Spot ETFs may open up billions of inflows, with long-term price ranges between $20 and $30 by 2026. For now, XRP's journey is still largely dictated by the outcome of regulatory developments and the actions of technical signals.
Also Read: Billions of XRP are About to be Locked Up: Here’s Why
