.png){kind=logo}
China’s growing export surplus might shape the economic agenda when President Xi Jinping meets US President Donald Trump in Washington on September 24.
China’s global trade surplus could exceed USD 1 trillion for a second consecutive year, despite US tariffs and other trade controls. Both leaders are expected to focus on extending the trade truce agreed in 2025.
The arrangement reduced tariff pressure and helped both countries avoid another sharp break in trade. However, officials have lowered expectations for a wider agreement covering their long-running disputes.
China’s export sector has continued to grow across global markets. More than half of the roughly 6,500 Chinese product categories sold to the US this year recorded higher sales than in 2025. This growth came even as Washington restricted low-cost parcel shipments used by retailers such as Shein and Temu.
Direct exports to the US still fell 1.3% year on year to CNY 1.78 trillion during the first seven months of 2026. However, Chinese companies expanded their presence elsewhere. Southeast Asia has become China’s largest regional export market, while demand from Europe and other economies has supported shipments.
China continues to face weak domestic spending and a prolonged property downturn. Still, its export sector has provided steady support for factories and industrial production. The country’s global trade surplus now remains on course to exceed USD 1 trillion for the second straight year.
Scott Kennedy, a China economic specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the US pressure campaign failed to secure the expected concessions. “They thought they could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, and that did not occur,” he said.
Zhejiang province has asked manufacturers to raise production, complete deliveries faster and pursue new orders from American customers. The province remains one of China’s largest manufacturing and export centres, with major industrial bases in Ningbo and Wenzhou.
Zhejiang’s exports rose 10% from a year earlier to CNY 2.66 trillion, or about USD 396.5 billion, during the first seven months of 2026. The US and Europe together accounted for around 30% of the province’s overseas sales.
Local authorities have also encouraged companies to send sales teams to the US. The campaign aims to use the current period of calmer trade relations before fresh disputes can restrict market access. Meanwhile, Chinese exporters continue to build their customer bases in Southeast Asia and other regions.
A group of Chinese business leaders is also expected to accompany Xi to Washington. Some companies want wider access to the US market, although several still face American reviews linked to technology, data security and competition rules.
Trump and Xi are expected to place the trade truce at the centre of their meeting. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held preparatory talks in New York covering artificial intelligence safeguards and trade in non-sensitive products.
The proposed US-China Board of Trade could identify goods that both countries can exchange with fewer restrictions. Bessent has said the board will focus on non-strategic products that Washington does not plan to manufacture domestically.
Taiwan may also enter the talks. Trump previously described a planned USD 14 billion US arms package for Taiwan as a ‘negotiating chip.’ Officials in Taipei and Tokyo remain concerned that Washington could adjust its position while seeking Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, farm products or other US goods.
Iran, critical minerals, fentanyl chemicals and supply chains could also appear on the agenda. However, maintaining stable trade remains the immediate economic goal. Any truce extension would give Chinese exporters more time to serve US buyers while expanding into other global markets.
Also Read: Trump-Xi Summit Draws U.S. and Chinese Tech Leaders for AI Talks
