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VanEck expects Bitcoin to reach $2.9 million by 2050 under a formal capital market assumptions model. The asset manager published the framework on January 8, 2026, and anchored it to data as of December 31, 2025.
VanEck’s base case assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate over 2026 - 2050. The analysts linked that path to liquidity expansion and monetary debasement pressures.
Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush modeled Bitcoin as a settlement asset for global commerce. Their base case assumes Bitcoin settles 5% to 10% of global trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050.
The paper frames Bitcoin as a long-duration hedge tied to sovereign debt constraints. It separates short-term moves driven by liquidity cycles from long-term value tied to adoption and balance-sheet shifts.
VanEck also notes that Bitcoin already appears in trade flows in sanctioned markets. Reports cite use in Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, while G7 adoption remains limited.
VanEck placed Bitcoin’s trade role in context using SWIFT payment shares. In September 2025, the U.S. dollar accounted for about 47.79% of global payments by value.
The euro and British pound stood near 22.77% and 7.38%. The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan followed at roughly 3.69% and 3.17%.
Under the model’s 5% to 10% share range, Bitcoin’s settlement footprint would align with today’s major currencies in cross-border payments.
The model also assumes a reserve pivot. In that scenario, central banks allocate a portion of assets to Bitcoin. VanEck estimated a 2.5% central bank allocation in the base case. At a $2.9 million price, it forecasts Bitcoin would represent about 1.66% of world financial assets.
The valuation table uses an approximate Bitcoin price of $88,000 on December 31, 2025. VanEck uses that baseline to compute implied growth rates.
For asset allocation, the paper suggests a 1% to 3% strategic position for diversified portfolios. It also notes that higher-risk portfolios historically optimized Sharpe ratios with allocations up to 20%.
VanEck also published long-run risk inputs for institutional models. It set expected volatility in a 40% to 70% annualized range and described low-to-moderate correlations to major asset classes.
VanEck’s research links Bitcoin’s long-run returns to liquidity measures such as global M2. It reports that changes in M2 explain more than half of Bitcoin’s price variance in its analysis.
The authors also discuss a historically negative relationship with the US Dollar Index. They say that inverse correlation moderated in the current cycle.
VanEck outlined three valuation scenarios for 2050. The bear case assumes a 2% CAGR and a $130,000 price, with limited settlement adoption.
The bull case assumes hyper-bitcoinization, with Bitcoin capturing 20% of trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Under that scenario, VanEck modeled a $53.4 million price and a 29% CAGR.
The paper treats regulation as the main long-run risk factor for settlement-layer adoption. It also warns that leverage can amplify drawdowns through futures positioning.
For 2026, VanEck tracks relative unrealized profit and funding rates to gauge overheating. It lists RUP near 0.43 and funding near 4.9% as of 12 December 2025.
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