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Tesla stock rose 0.4% overnight heading into Tuesday after gaining more than 2% Monday to USD 378.73. Investors focused on third-quarter deliveries, SpaceX merger speculation and Tesla’s expanding AI strategy.
Baird maintained an Outperform rating and a USD 475 price target. That target represents about 25% upside from Monday’s closing level.
Meanwhile, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles during the third quarter. The figure topped some analyst expectations and gave bullish investors another reason to examine the company’s near-term earnings outlook.
Baird said investor attention has recently centered on Tesla’s Cybercab launch, robotaxi expansion and speculation about a possible SpaceX combination. The firm expects merger discussions to remain a major near-term theme.
Tesla delivered 478,237 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during the quarter. The company also delivered 8,295 units from its other vehicle lines.
Production reached 464,391 vehicles, leaving deliveries above quarterly output. Energy-storage deployments totaled 13.7 gigawatt-hours during the same period.
Still, total deliveries fell about 2% from the same quarter last year. The earlier period benefited from buying ahead of the expiration of the USD 7,500 U.S. electric vehicle tax credit.
Baird said Model 3 and Model Y deliveries drove the quarterly beat. By contrast, deliveries from Tesla’s other models declined and fell short of consensus forecasts.
Energy-storage deployments also missed expectations. Still, Baird described the business as a bright spot after deployments increased 10% from a year earlier.
Tesla will report quarterly earnings after the market closes on October 21, giving investors another update on margins, deliveries and its broader technology plans.
Future Fund Managing Director Gary Black said Tesla’s stronger vehicle deliveries could support further gains if the improvement continues.
Black compared Tesla’s 487,000 deliveries with an estimate of 462,000. He then annualized the 25,000-vehicle difference and estimated a possible USD 0.15 increase in adjusted annual earnings per share.
Using that estimate, Black calculated that the earnings improvement could add roughly USD 32 per share to Tesla’s valuation. Tesla had gained about USD 23 per share since Friday morning.
The calculation raises a key question: can stronger vehicle deliveries support Tesla shares while investors increasingly value the company through AI, robotics and autonomous driving?
Other analysts remain more cautious. Truist kept its Hold rating and USD 370 price target, which implies modest downside from Monday’s closing price.
Truist said the delivery report offered no updates about Tesla’s AI projects or future vehicles. Instead, the firm continues to focus on Full Self-Driving and the Optimus humanoid robot.
The firm considers AI developments more important than vehicle deliveries for Tesla’s long-term cash generation and stock performance. It also reduced its 2027 earnings estimate by one cent to USD 1.97 per share.
Read More: Tesla Share Price: Current Stock Price, TSLA Trends, and Key Factors
HSBC raised its Tesla price target to USD 157 from USD 125 but kept its Reduce rating. The updated target still implies substantial downside from current levels.
The firm noted that quarterly production trailed deliveries by about 23,000 vehicles. HSBC said that gap could point toward slower expected sales or reflect summer factory shutdowns. Energy-storage deployments also missed HSBC’s expectations. The result came 19% below Visible Alpha consensus and 24% below HSBC’s estimate, leading the firm to cut its full-year deployment forecast.
Morningstar offered a stronger valuation view. It maintained a USD 450 fair value estimate and described Tesla as slightly undervalued at current levels.
Its earnings watchlist includes robotaxi expansion, Cybercab, Full Self-Driving version 15 and Optimus. Those projects remain central to Tesla’s shift beyond traditional vehicle manufacturing. Tesla’s semiconductor plans also drew attention after Elon Musk acknowledged discussions involving Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Terafab, Tesla’s project with SpaceX.
Musk said discussions had taken place and indicated that an agreement could eventually emerge. A report cited potential factory ownership, equity contributions, purchasing commitments or TSMC manufacturing expertise.
Retail sentiment also improved. Stocktwits data showed Tesla sentiment moving to bullish from neutral as 24-hour message volume jumped 374%. Some users pointed to Cybercab deployment, robotaxi expansion and AI development as potential drivers. Meanwhile, Tesla shares remain down about 16% this year and trail their Magnificent Seven peers.
Tesla shares gained as investors weighed stronger third-quarter deliveries, SpaceX merger speculation and growing focus on AI and robotics. Analyst targets remain widely divided ahead of October 21 earnings, while robotaxi progress, Cybercab, FSD and Optimus remain key items to watch.
