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Solana faces a pivotal test as most holders sit in loss while new ETF flows and a proposed supply change reshape expectations for the token’s next move. The network now balances fragile technical levels, heavy leverage, and structural changes that could alter long-term tokenomics.
On-chain data shows the pressure on Solana holders. Around 78% of SOL addresses currently sit in loss, while Solana also broke several key support zones after its mid-September high near $253. This structure leaves the asset more vulnerable to capitulation if sentiment weakens again.
Solana has underperformed major peers in the current quarter. The token has fallen about 38% in Q4, compared with roughly 32% for Ethereum. High-cap altcoins have also lost ground against Bitcoin, which has drawn capital away from riskier assets.
The current trading band adds to that concern. Solana price is near $137–$138 at the time of writing, after a rebound from the $121.50 Fibonacci zone. Support between $133.50 and $134.80 now acts as a key pivot, while $139.80–$140 stands out as the first major resistance band.
Technical levels frame the immediate outlook. On the upside, resistance stands at $139.80–$140, then $148.80 and $165.82 on Fibonacci levels, with $179.50 and $193.20 as higher targets. On the downside, $134 and $129.80 mark key supports, with $121.50 as the recent swing low. Price compression below $140, rising leverage, and mixed flows suggest that Solana’s next decisive move could set the tone for its short-term trend.
Derivatives positioning indicates a market leaning in one direction. According to CoinGlass data, over 80% of Solana perpetual positions on Binance are long. Open interest stands at $7.04 billion, indicating strong participation and leverage following the recent episode of volatility.
Spot activity paints a weaker picture. Outflows dominated much of the year, with heavy selling in July and September and fresh outflows of roughly $8.84 million on November 25 as SOL traded near $137. Large holders also trimmed exposure. One tracked wallet, GJwCUj, sold more than 32,000 SOL after holding for about ten months, even realizing a substantial loss.
Solana ETF flows push in the other direction. Franklin Templeton is set to add SOL to its crypto index ETF from December 1, alongside XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Stellar, and Chainlink. Analysts also point to continued inflows into Solana ETFs in recent weeks. According to commentators like Wendy O and Armando Aguilar, such products have continued to attract capital despite pullbacks in the wider market.
A protocol proposal now sits at the centre of the Solana narrative. SIMD-0411 aims to double the network’s disinflation rate from 15% to 30%. The change would remove an estimated 22 million SOL from the planned emission path. Under this schedule, Solana would reach its long-term inflation target of 1.5% in a little over three years instead of more than six.
Analysts report that many investors regard the proposal as constructive for Solana’s long-term supply dynamics. Aguilar notes that the combination of ETF demand, network activity, and improved tokenomics supports expectations for potential price recovery. Market participants still weigh that view against the reality that most holders remain underwater.
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