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US oil and energy shares rose on Monday, January 5, after US forces seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Traders reacted after President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of Venezuela and pursue investment in its oil sector. Oil prices also gained more than 1% as markets assessed near-term risks to Venezuelan flows.
Chevron, the only US major operating in Venezuela under a US waiver, climbed more than 4% in morning trading. Refiners also advanced, including Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, PBF Energy, and Valero Energy, which rose between about 5.7% and 9%.
Meanwhile, oilfield services firms Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and SLB gained between about 4.5% and 7.7% on expectations of new work. Trump told reporters he spoke with US oil companies “before and after” the Maduro arrest about investment plans. He said companies would repair oil infrastructure and invest their own money.
However, he also said the embargo on Venezuelan oil exports would remain fully in effect for now. Venezuelan crude is heavy and sour, with high sulfur content. This grade fits many US Gulf Coast refineries, which process it into diesel and heavier fuels.
Venezuela holds about 17% of global oil reserves, or around 303 billion barrels, according to the Energy Institute. However, production has dropped for decades, as nationalization, weaker investment, and sanctions have limited capacity. Venezuela produced about 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, then slid below 2 million in the 2010s. It averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, or roughly 1% of global supply.
Analysts said recovery will take time because infrastructure has aged and investment needs remain large. JPMorgan estimated a transition could lift output to 1.3 million - 1.4 million barrels per day within two years. JPMorgan also projected output near 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade.
JPMorgan said ConocoPhillips has outstanding claims approaching $10 billion. It put Exxon Mobil’s outstanding damages near $2 billion, against original claims above $15 billion. Shares reflected the optimism, with Exxon up about 5% and Conoco up about 3.4%. Goldman Sachs said any recovery would likely be gradual and investment-heavy. It estimated a $4 downside to 2030 oil prices if output reaches 2 million barrels per day.
In recent weeks, the administration told US oil executives to move quickly and invest significant capital if they seek compensation for past losses. Consequently, traders now watch sanctions policy, project terms, and the pace of decisions in Caracas and Washington. Stock moves may stay sensitive as companies weigh costs, security, and timelines while the embargo stays in place.
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