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NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock may be poised for a 20% rally. Wells Fargo analysts projected this stock upside based on the company’s latest US government deal on AI chip exports to China, according to a CNBC TV 18 report. This Trump NVIDIA arrangement is ‘unusual’, analysts told CNBC. It comes amid increasing tariff threats and trade war tensions.
NVIDIA China chip deal would allow the company to resume exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China. In exchange for it, the AI chip giant will pay the US government a 15% share of the sales. This arrangement, alongside strong US imports of automated data processing (ADP) machines, is seen as a favourable dual catalyst in Wells Fargo estimates.
As of 7:06 PM IST on August 11, NVIDIA shares are trading at $181.13, down 0.86% for the day. The stock’s intraday range is between $180.27 and $182.81, with a volume of 13.65 million shares. Current bid stands at $180.29 (300 shares), while the ask is $180.31 (272 shares), thus showing high investor interest.
Although the stock shows a dip at opening time, contrary to the Wells Fargo forecast, investor enthusiasm remains intact. NVIDIA shares’ 52-week range spans from $86.62 to $183.88, keeping the current share price near record highs.
NVIDIA share price chart on TradingView shows a loss of 0.68% as of 7.12 PM:
Wells Fargo raised its price target on NVIDIA from $185 to $220 while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating. The company’s analysts also noted that NVIDIA could recover the entire $8 billion quarterly revenue impact from the China export ban by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (January period).
Pre-market trading on August 11 saw NVIDIA stock slip 0.7%, but sentiment on retail investor platform Stocktwits remained firmly bullish. The company’s stock has already gained 36% in 2025 and is up 68% over the past year.
If the export license framework holds, NVIDIA share price could swiftly regain lost market share in the global AI boom. The combination of renewed Chinese demand, strong US tech imports, and NVIDIA’s leadership in AI hardware positions the stock for continued growth. Although the current decline looks concerning, many investors believe the rally could extend beyond 20% if AI adoption accelerates and geopolitical tensions remain in check.
Also Read: NVIDIA, AMD Agree to Share 15% of China Chip Revenue with US
