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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) drew attention after a pullback renewed concerns about fast share corrections. The move also revived debate about 2026 artificial intelligence (AI) spending. Notably, NVDA stock has dropped more than 30% in under two months on up to eight occasions.
A risk review linked NVIDIA’s largest drawdowns to broad market shocks. It said the stock fell 68% during the Dot-Com crash and 85% during the Global Financial Crisis.
However, the same review said steep drops can also follow company-specific catalysts. Earnings reactions, guidance changes, and business updates can reset expectations quickly.
In addition, operating strength still supports the valuation debate. The snapshot cited 65.2% trailing revenue growth and a 41.3% free cash flow margin. It also put the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 43.7.
One risk list highlighted rising accounts receivable and channel saturation in the Data Center segment. The note tied the issue to pull-forward demand and weaker cash flow quality. Consequently, it warned that growth could miss expectations.
The evidence cited accounts receivable of $33.39 billion, up 45% since the fiscal year began. It also cited Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) of 53.5 days, versus a 46-day historical average.
Still, the timeline is centered on the next two quarters, which keeps attention on execution. Management guidance can clarify whether receivables reflect timing or customer digestion.
Another risk list focused on hyperscaler bargaining power and in-house competition for AI accelerators. It warned that gross margins could compress from the mid-70% range toward the high-60% range. As a result, it tied margin pressure to potential multiple contractions.
Major cloud providers continue building custom accelerators, including Google’s tensor processing units (TPUs). Meanwhile, analyst commentary pointed to supply diversification with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel for pricing leverage. The same framework set a 12- to 18-month window for these pressures.
A separate market note linked a one-day drop of more than 3% to tariff anxiety tied to President Trump’s Greenland acquisition push. It suggested tariffs could start on February 1 at 10% on exports from the UK and European countries. The note said tariffs could rise to 25% by June 1 without a territorial deal.
Additionally, projections pointed to slower AI infrastructure spending growth in 2026. One forecast put cloud capital expenditure (capex) growth at 19% to 26% in 2026, down from 54% in 2025. Another estimate projected $527 billion in hyperscaler AI capex for 2026.
A forecast also reported that OpenAI could burn $17 billion in cash in 2026, up from $9 billion in 2025. Consequently, investors have questioned whether AI monetization will match the scale of buildouts.
China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) issued preliminary findings on September 15, 2025, tied to the 2020 Mellanox merger remedies, a summary said. The same summary said the probe remained unresolved on January 20, 2026.
Some research stayed constructive into earnings season. JP Morgan kept an Overweight rating on NVIDIA, while Wolfe Research cited 23 times forward earnings. Wolfe also cited $40 billion of potential 2026 revenue upside from Blackwell and Rubin.
NVIDIA reached a $1 trillion market capitalization milestone at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) open on May 30, 2023, according to a Getty Images-captioned report. The caption also said NVIDIA forecasts second-quarter sales of $11 billion, about 50% above the $7.15 billion in analyst estimates.
Looking ahead, investors will watch receivables trends, hyperscaler capex plans, and any SAMR updates. Consequently, NVDA stock could stay sensitive to guidance shifts and evolving AI spending expectations.
Also Read: Chinese Chip Stocks Advance as Beijing Signals Limits on Nvidia H200 Imports
