Netflix Stock Rebounds to $86 as Investors Weigh 2026 Outlook and Warner Bros Deal

Netflix stock traded at $86.12 on Jan. 26, up 3.09% on the day. The move followed a sharp repricing tied to Netflix’s 2026 revenue guidance and uncertainty around its Warner Bros. Discovery transaction.

Pre-market data showed Netflix at about $86.82, up roughly 0.81% from the prior close of $83.54, which was close to a 52-week low.

Netflix Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, But 2026 Guidance Drives Reaction

Netflix reported fourth-quarter revenue of $12.05 billion, up about 18% year over year. The result beat analyst estimates of $11.97 billion. Net income rose 29% from a year earlier to $2.4 billion, or $0.56 per share. That topped estimates of $0.55 per share.

However, investors centered on Netflix’s 2026 guidance. Netflix forecasts 2026 revenue of $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion, implying 12% to 14% growth. That pace would fall below the 16% revenue growth rate in 2025. Consequently, the outlook became the main driver of the stock move.

Subscriber Growth Slows As Netflix Targets Higher Ad Revenue

Netflix said subscribers grew 8% in 2025 to 325 million. That rate was lower than each of the prior two years. In addition, Netflix expects ad revenue to double in 2026. Some investors linked that target to slower growth in memberships.

Bloomberg consensus data also framed expectations around results and guidance. Analysts expected fourth-quarter revenue of $11.96 billion. The same consensus expected adjusted earnings per share of $0.55. For the full fiscal year, Wall Street expected revenue of $45.1 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.52.

For the first quarter, Wall Street expected revenue of $10.54 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.66. Meanwhile, Netflix’s earnings comparisons reflect a 10-for-1 stock split in mid-November.

Warner Bros. Discovery Deal Overhang Keeps Pressure On Netflix Stock

Netflix stock has declined steadily since late 2025, when the company began efforts to buy Warner Bros. Discovery assets. The shares are down nearly 27% from six months ago. Last week, Netflix said it amended its agreement to an all-cash offer of $27.75 per Warner Bros. Discovery share. Netflix said the change increases certainty for stockholders.

Warner Bros. Discovery board chair Samuel Di Piazza, Jr. said the all-cash structure provides greater certainty. He also said it gives stockholders a chance to participate in Discovery Global’s strategic plans.

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the Warner Bros. Discovery board continues to support the deal. He added that the board unanimously recommends the transaction. Netflix described the offer as $72 billion in equity value. Another figure put the transaction at about $82.7 billion, including assumed Warner Bros. debt tied to the assets under discussion.

A competing bid has also shaped the negotiations. Paramount Skydance (PSKY), backed by the Ellison family, made an all-cash offer of $30 per share, valued at $108 billion. That Paramount Skydance proposal includes cable and news assets of the combined company. By contrast, Netflix is bidding for Warner Bros.’ film and streaming assets.

Investors also face an upcoming decision point. Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders are expected to vote in April. Regulatory review remains another variable. Market participants have flagged potential antitrust challenges and other regulatory hurdles.

Analysts also pointed to a prolonged overhang. CFRA analyst Kenneth Leon wrote that the acquisition overhang may persist for 18 to 24 months with uncertain outcomes. Leon also wrote that Netflix would likely need to sell assets to reduce debt. 

In addition, Manhattan Venture Partners' head of research, Santosh Rao, said Netflix needs the acquisition amid slowing growth. Rao also said near-term concerns are valid. Still, he said the deal could strengthen Netflix’s offering and ecosystem over time.

Looking ahead, investors are likely to watch the April shareholder vote, any changes in competing bids, and the pace of regulatory review. Markets are also likely to focus on Netflix’s 2026 revenue range, subscriber growth trend, and ad revenue targets.

Also Read: AirAsia Considers Major Airbus A220 Purchase After Capital A Restructuring