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BTC is aiming to reclaim the $100K mark. On the other hand market signals suggest that this milestone may not be achieved easily . Several on-chain and technical metrics show of a possible price correction, with BTC currently consolidating near $98,522.72 as of writing.
TheBlock data reveals that Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is nearing historically high levels, often followed by market corrections.
Looking back on what happened in 2018, 2021, 2022 and the initial months of 2024, BTC could be correcting to lower levels.
The dominance of Bitcoin has also dropped from around 53% to 51% over the past week. This decline indicates a potential altcoin season and waning dominance of BTC in the market.
Glassnode’s data highlighted a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio, signaling overvaluation. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant reported higher net deposits on exchanges compared to the seven-day average, reflecting growing selling pressure.
Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSORP) turned red. This also shows investors are selling at a profit. Looking back, this has brought a market top during bull runs.
BTC miners seem less positive, having sold out 85,503 BTC in the last two days. This huge sell-off lowered the miner balances to the lowest level seen in the last few months. This as well supports the bearish outlook.
From a technical look, the MACD showed bearish momentum. If selling pressure continues BTC may lose its $100k reclaim target and begin correcting towards the $95K zone. Any further breakdown below this support might drag the price even to the $91K mark where there is another support.
In that regard, while other indicators pointed to bearish territory, the Money Flow Index (MFI) seemed to increase, suggesting ongoing buying trends. This implies that BTC can surpass $100K in the near future in case of an increased upward momentum.
