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Fundstrat Global Advisors digital asset strategy head Sean Farrell says Ethereum may be near a market bottom, if it has not already reached one. He pointed to realized price history and past cycle lows. Based on that data, he projected relief of around $1,360 to $1,770. He also said an 80% rally could follow within 12 months if ETH holds above $1.3K.
Realized price reflects the average cost basis for on-chain holders. Traders often treat it as a key support zone during major drawdowns. Farrell linked his range to how ETH behaved around this level in prior cycles.
In 2022, ETH formed a bottom after it fell 39% below its price. After that break, the drawdown eased and the market began to stabilize. Farrell used this historical pattern to frame a lower-end target.
In Q1 2025, ETH rebounded after it dropped 21% below the realized price. That move marked a milder deviation than in 2022. Farrell said that the path points to a higher potential bottom level.
If the 2022 pattern repeats, Farrell projected a bottom near $1,367. If the 2025 pattern repeats, he projected support near $1,770. Which historical template will the market follow this time?
Farrell said his earlier call in December proved accurate. He predicted Bitcoin would drop to $60,000 and ETH to $1,800 earlier in 2026. He also said the market may recover in the second half of 2026.
After that forecast, a broader drawdown pushed ETH lower. ETH hit $1,747 on Binance. That low sits close to Farrell’s $1,770 scenario.
If the 2025 setup repeats, ETH may already have set its bottom. If the 2022 pathway repeats, ETH may still face another leg down. Farrell framed that risk as a possible 30% drop toward $1.36K from about $1.94K.
Even so, Farrell expects an 80% rally over the next 12 months if ETH holds above $1.3K. At the same time, he tied any durable rebound to flow signals. He said the market needs stronger support from US demand.
Selling from U.S. investors, including ETFs, cooled after early February. Yet it has not flipped to net buying. Farrell pointed to the negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index.
Historically, sustained ETH recoveries have aligned with U.S. buying pressure. For now, Farrell said a negative premium may keep ETH below $2,000. As a result, ETH may struggle to reclaim $2,000 for a while.
Analysts also described a flow-based “capitulation” signal tied to deep average losses. They said extreme loss depth often marks the worst part of capitulation. They linked the current loss profile to a 12-month implied return near +81%.
Liquidity has stayed active despite losses. ETH posted $8.56 billion in 24-hour trading volume. That level signals ongoing price discovery and continued capital movement.
The bottom thesis also rests on staking and institutional validation. Over 30% of the ETH supply sits locked in validators. That lockup reduces circulating supply and tightens future availability during selloffs.
Institutional activity adds another demand layer. BlackRock and ARK Invest bought millions of shares in BitMine. Amundi launched tokenized funds on Ethereum, adding on-chain institutional participation that Farrell said earlier downturns lacked.
Also Read: Ethereum Whales Dump Reserves in 2026: Is a Bigger Move Coming?
Ethereum price sits near a possible bottom, with realized price history pointing to $1,360–$1,770 as key support. ETH staking has locked over 30% of the supply, while institutional demand remains present. Still, the Coinbase Premium Index st
