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Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures a portion of the global store-of-value market currently dominated by gold. He explained that many critics dismiss the forecast because they believe Bitcoin must equal half of gold’s market value to achieve that level. Yet Hougan said that view ignores long-term growth in the broader store-of-value market and the expanding role of digital assets.
According to Hougan, gold’s market capitalization has grown at roughly 13% each year since 2004. During that period, the value increased from about $2.5 trillion to nearly $38 trillion.
He linked this rise to concerns over government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, easy monetary policy, and other economic pressures.
Hougan argued that the same market expansion could reshape how investors evaluate Bitcoin’s potential value.
Matt Hougan said the global store-of-value market may reach about $121 trillion within ten years if the historical growth rate continues. Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture around 17% of the market to reach a $1 million valuation per coin.
He described Bitcoin as an emerging store-of-value asset that allows individuals to hold wealth outside traditional banking systems. Unlike gold, Bitcoin exists in digital form and remains more volatile and less established.
Still, he said the asset increasingly competes with gold for the same role in preserving wealth.
Hougan outlined a simple framework to estimate Bitcoin’s potential price. First, estimate the total size of the store-of-value market. Next, estimate BTC’s share of that market.
Finally, divide the result by Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins to determine the implied price. Currently, the global store-of-value market stands just under $38 trillion. Gold accounts for about $36 trillion of that total, while Bitcoin represents roughly $1.4 trillion.
That distribution leaves Bitcoin with slightly under 4% of the market today. With those figures, Hougan said BTC would need to capture more than half of the current market to reach $1 million. He acknowledged that the requirement appears difficult under today’s market conditions.
Recent market movements show Bitcoin and gold have not followed the same trajectory in recent months. Gold reached an all-time high of $5,327 per ounce in late January. The metal now trades about 2.2% below that peak. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades roughly 44% below its October peak.
Some investors have questioned Bitcoin’s role as a long-term safe-haven asset.
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said in early March that gold serves that purpose better. Dalio pointed out that central banks continue to purchase gold rather than Bitcoin.
He also said BTC behaves more like a technology stock than a traditional store of value.
Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, shared a similar observation.
On March 6, he said Bitcoin does not currently trade like a macro hedge or sovereign risk hedge. He also noted that markets do not price Bitcoin as an inflation trade or real-rate hedge.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Trades Near $67,000 After Recent Drop to $66,000
Hougan said the outlook for Bitcoin depends on the continued growth of the global store-of-value market. He noted that the past two decades included several unusual economic events. Those events included the global financial crisis, the introduction of quantitative easing, and a long period of low interest rates.
Future conditions may differ from those trends. If the store-of-value market slows or contracts, gold prices could decline. Bitcoin also faces the possibility of failing to gain additional market share. Still, Hougan said projections could also prove conservative if economic pressures intensify.
Rising concerns about government debt could accelerate demand for store-of-value assets.
In that environment, he said Bitcoin could claim a larger share of the market. As the debate continues, one central question remains: could Bitcoin eventually compete directly with gold in the global store-of-value market?
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures a portion of the expanding global store-of-value market dominated by gold. He noted Bitcoin currently holds under 4% of that market. The outlook depends on market growth and Bitcoin gaining a greater share.
