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XRP is currently trading at a critical crossroads, with the price action, ETF flows, and on-chain data indicating a rebound. The token has recovered 12% from its monthly lows, but it remains within a narrowing triangle that does not provide sufficient confirmation of the trend.
Recent trading saw XRP slip back below the $2.20 level after a short-lived bounce. A daily death cross increased selling pressure and pushed the market toward a key support band around $2.17 to $2.18.
Analysts now watch this zone as a line that separates signals for correction from a deeper retracement toward $2.08 and the $1.90 region.
The weekly chart shows XRP still locked in a symmetrical triangle pattern. Buyers and sellers remain evenly matched, and price continues to compress inside this range.
The rebound lifted XRP back above a short-term support area. However, MACD on the weekly timeframe shows a bearish crossover, which keeps risk elevated. Repeated tests of the $1.93 support region also suggest that buyers do not yet hold firm command. Overhead, resistance near $2.95 stands as a barrier before any move toward previous highs.
On the daily chart, indicators send mixed signals. Price recently broke out of a falling channel while Chaikin Money Flow moved above the zero line, hinting at improving inflows. Yet RSI fails to reclaim its midline and stays weak, and MACD drifts deeper into negative territory.
Short-term moving averages now slope downward, and the 50-day average sits above spot price after forming the death cross. For upside confirmation, analysts look for a move back above $2.20, followed by a break of the $2.25 to $2.30 resistance band and then the $2.32 Fibonacci level.
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ETF products tied to XRP continue to attract new capital. Community commentators argue that authorized participants must source much of this XRP from the open market, which could tighten available supply.
Despite this, spot price reaction remains limited. XRP still trades below recent highs, and rallies struggle to hold above $2.20. Binance exchange reserves have fallen to a yearly low near 2.7 billion XRP after about 300 million XRP left the platform since October. This trend signals ongoing accumulation by long-term holders even as derivative selling keeps near-term sentiment cautious.
On-chain dormancy has risen to the highest level since late October, which shows that long-standing wallets now move coins during price strength. Together with weak sentiment indicators, this leaves XRP in a phase where ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances offer medium-term support, while the chart still leans bearish until price reclaims key resistance with stronger volume.
